Damien Irving edited results_psa.tex  over 8 years ago

Commit id: 0d991d2814ee7adaae3ce29175bf76a3c6c293af

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In defining the PSA pattern according to the peaks of the PSA-like phase distribution, it was necessary to account for seasonal variations in the location of those peaks (Figure \ref{fig:phase_distribution}). A spread of 15$^{\circ}$E was considered sufficient to capture those variations, and hence the 1979-2014 annual Guassian kernel density estimate used to isolate the 15$^{\circ}$ interval about the two local maxima containing the highest local values (i.e. to account of the fact that the density estimates were not symmetrical about the local maxima). This yielded two intervals corresponding to the positive (4.5-19.5$^{\circ}$E) and negative (37.5-52.5$^{\circ}$E) phase of the PSA pattern.  During autumn and winter in particular, the middle years (\~1991-2002) were characterized by a predominance of positive phase events, while negative phase events have been more common in recent years (Figure \ref{fig:phase_distribution}). This variability is reflected in the linear trends observed over that time, with negative phase events showing a statistically significant increasing trend (at the $p < 0.05$ level) on an annual basis (Figure \ref{fig:psa-neg-seasonality}). \ref{fig:psa-neg_seasonality}).  Consistent with previous studies, the PSA pattern showed a preference for winter and spring (Figure \ref{fig:psa-pos-seasonality} \ref{fig:psa-pos_seasonality}  and \ref{fig:psa-neg-seasonality}). \ref{fig:psa-neg_seasonality}).  In order to assess the influence of the PSA pattern on regional climate variability, the composite mean surface air temperature anomaly, precipitation anomaly and sea ice concentration anomaly was calculated for both the positive and negative phase (Figure \ref{fig:surface_composites}). On the western flank of the central streamfunction anomaly associated with positive phase events, anomalously warm conditions were evident over the Ross Sea, Amundsen Sea and interior of West Antactica, particularly during autumn and winter. The northerly flow responsible for those warm conditions also induced large precipitation increases along the West Antarctic coastline and reduced sea ice in the Amundsen Sea. On the eastern flank, anomalously cool conditions were evident over the Antarctic Peninsula, Patagonia and the Weddell Sea during all seasons (winter and spring especially), with the latter also experiencing large increases in sea ice. Anomalously dry conditions were also seen over the Antarcitc Peninsula in association with the weaker westerly flow.