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Damien Irving edited introduction.tex
over 8 years ago
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It has been shown that the PSA pattern plays a role in South American rainfall variability \citep{Mo2001}, blocking events (Sinclair et al 1997 and Renwick and Revell 1999) and poleward heat transport (Christoph et al. 1998, Hall and Visbeck, 2002). It is also closely related to prominent regional features such as the Amundsen Sea Low (Turner2013) and Antartic Dipole \citep{Yuan2001} and projects onto the Southern Annular Mode \citep{Ding2012}. While these are all important mid-to-high latitude impacts and relationships, in recent years the PSA pattern has been mentioned most frequently in the literature in relation to the rapid warming observed over West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula \citep{Nicolas2014}. In particular, it has been suggested that seasonal trends in tropical Pacific SSTs may be responsible, via the PSA pattern, for winter (and to a lesser extent spring) surface warming in West Antarctica \citep{Ding2011} and autumn surface warming across the Antarctic Peninsula \citep{Ding2013}. The pattern has also been associated with declines in sea ice in the Amunden and Bellingshausen Seas \citep{Schneider2012} and glacier retreat in the Amundsen Sea Embayment \citep{Steig2012}.
In identifying the PSA pattern as a possible contributor to these trends, the aforementioned
authors typically employed studies looked through the lens of the variable/s of interest. For instance, \citet{Ding2011} performed a
regression or maximum covariance analysis
involving to look at the
high latitude variable of interest (e.g. surface temperature over West Antarctica) relationship between central Pacific SSTs and the broader SH circulation
(e.g. 500 hPa (the 200hPa geopotential height). The
resulting anomalous geopoential height field (for instance) second mode of that analysis revealed a
PSA-like pattern, thus leading circulation resembling the
authors to their conclusion. PSA pattern (and that brings warm air over West Antarctica), and atmospheric model runs forced with the associated central Pacific SSTs produced a PSA-like wave train. While this is certainly a valid research methodology, the
proposed relationships result would be more robust if
they it went both ways. For example, when looking at rainfall variability in
South Eastern south-eastern Australia,
you see an ENSO signature
is seen when looking from the rainfall perspective (e.g.
a regression
of SE analysis between south-east Australian rainfall and tropical Pacific SSTs) and also from the ENSO perspective (e.g.
a Nino Ni\~{n}o 3.4
composite would composites show large rainfall anomalies in
SE south-east Australia). In other words, the
most proposed mechanism would be more robust
teleconnections we know go both ways. (Ghyslaine has been looking at this two-way relationship and how it can break down) if a climatology of PSA pattern activity displayed trends consistent with warming in West Antarcitca.
This Such a climatology could leverage the advances of Irving...
So we want to look through the lens of major zonal asymmetries in the SH and look at their influence on regional climate variability. In doing this we will:
\begin{itemize}
\item Update existing climatological accounts using new and longer datasets
\item Improve upon existing identification methods by borrowing from synoptic-scale Rossby wave studies