Greenhouse gases modulate the strength of millennial-scale subtropical
rainfall, consistent with future predictions
Abstract
Millennial scale East Asian monsoon variability is closely associated
with natural hazards through long-term variability in flood and drought
cycles. Here we present a new East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall
reconstruction from the northwest Chinese loess plateau spanning the
past 650,000 years. The magnitude of millennial monsoon variability
(MMV) in EASM rainfall is strongly linked to ice volume and greenhouse
gas (GHG) at the 100,000-year earth-orbital eccentricity band and to GHG
and summer insolation at the 23,000-year precession band. At the
precession band, times of stronger insolation and increased atmospheric
GHG lead to increases in the MMV of EASM rainfall. These findings
indicate increased extreme precipitation events under future warming
scenarios, consistent with model results.