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Deep Investigations of Outer-Rise Tsunami Characteristics using Well-Mapped Normal Faults along the Japan Trench
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  • Toshitaka Baba,
  • Naotaka Yamamoto Chikasada,
  • Yasuyuki Nakamura,
  • Gou Fujie,
  • Koichiro Obana,
  • Seiichi Miura,
  • Shuichi Kodaira
Toshitaka Baba
Tokushima University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Naotaka Yamamoto Chikasada
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience
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Yasuyuki Nakamura
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
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Gou Fujie
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
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Koichiro Obana
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
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Seiichi Miura
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
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Shuichi Kodaira
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
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Abstract

The giant 2011 Tohoku earthquake (M9.0) could be expected to induce an 8-class outer-rise earthquake at the Japan Trench. In order to assess the risk of tsunamis from outer-rise events, we carried out tsunami simulations using 33 simple rectangular fault models with 60 degrees dips based on geophysical studies of the Japan Trench. The largest tsunami resulting from these models, a fault 332 km long producing a 8.66 normal-faulting event, had a maximum height of 27.0 m. We tested variations of the predictions due to the uncertainties in the assumed parameters. Because seismic observations and surveys show that the dip angles of outer-rise faults range from 45 to 75 degrees, we calculated tsunamis from events on fault models with 45-75 degree dips. We tested a compound fault model with 75 degrees dip in the upper half and 45 degrees dip in the lower half. Rake angles were varied by plus-minus 15 degrees. We also tested models consisting of small subfaults with dimensions of about 60 km, models using other earthquake scaling laws, and models including dispersive tsunami effects. Predicted tsunami heights changed by 5-10% for dip angle changes, about 5-10% from considering tsunami dispersion, about 2% from rake angle changes, and about 1% from using the model with subfaults. The use of different earthquake scaling laws changed predicted tsunami heights by about 50% on average for the 33 fault models. We emphasize that the earthquake scaling law used in tsunami predictions for outer-rise earthquakes should be chosen with great care.
Oct 2020Published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth volume 125 issue 10. 10.1029/2020JB020060