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Minimal climate impacts from short-lived climate forcers following emission reductions related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
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  • James Weber,
  • Youngsub Matthew Shin,
  • John Staunton Sykes,
  • Scott Archer-Nicholls,
  • Nathan Luke Abraham,
  • Alexander Thomas Archibald
James Weber
Centre for Atmospheric, Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Youngsub Matthew Shin
Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge
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John Staunton Sykes
Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge
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Scott Archer-Nicholls
University of Cambridge
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Nathan Luke Abraham
NCAS, University of Cambridge
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Alexander Thomas Archibald
University of Cambridge
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Abstract

We present an assessment of the impacts on atmospheric composition and radiative forcing of short-lived pollutants following worldwide decrease in anthropogenic activity and emissions comparable to what has occurred in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, using the global composition-climate model UKCA. Changes in emissions reduce tropospheric hydroxyl radical and ozone burdens, increasing methane lifetime. Reduced SO emissions and oxidising capacity lead to a decrease in the sulphate aerosol burden and increase in aerosol particle size, with accompanying reductions to cloud droplet number concentration. However, large reductions in black carbon emissions increase the albedo of aerosols. Overall, the changes in ozone and aerosol direct effects (neglecting aerosol-cloud interactions) result in an instantaneous radiative forcing of -31 to -74 mWm. Upon cessation of emission reductions the short-lived climate forcers rapidly return to pre-COVID levels, meaning these changes are unlikely to have lasting impacts on climate assuming emissions return to pre-intervention levels.
28 Oct 2020Published in Geophysical Research Letters volume 47 issue 20. 10.1029/2020GL090326