Predicted impacts for Africa

Several studies have modeled and assessed the potential environmental and socio-economic impacts on the African content from climate change. Table \ref{table:literatureReview} provides a summary of the different studies. \citet{de_Wit_2006} assess that predicted precipitation changes will significantly affect present surface water access across 25% of Africa’s land surface by the end of this century. They estimate that a 10% decrease in precipitation in regions with more than 1000 millimeters precipitation per year would reduce drainage by 17%, regions with less than 500 millimeters would experience reduced drainage by up to 50%. \citet{Hulme_2001} estimate a temperature increase between 2 to 6 \(^{\circ}\)C by 2100. Temperature changes will have different impacts on different regions in Africa and are strongly related to changes in precipitation. As such, \citet{Burke_2006} predict increased droughts over Northern Africa and a wetting over central Africa.

Most smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa practice rain-fed agriculture and depend on local hydrological feedbacks \citep{Lasco_2014}. Therefore increasing climate variabilities will have significant socio-economic impacts and several studies attempted to estimate these. A study done by \citet{Schlenker_2010} showed that damages to yields of typical crops such as maize, sorghum, millet and groundnut are likely to exceed 7% by 2050 whilst yields from tropical crops such as rice could increase in regions with increasing flooding. This corresponds to other studies such as \citet{JONES_2003} who predict a 10% decrease in maize production until 2050. \citet{Zinyengere_2013} predict even more severe yield reductions, with a 18% decline for maize and an average crop decline of 30% for wheat, beans and sugarcane until 2100. Overall, crop responses to increasing climate variability tend to be negative for sub-Saharan Africa. \citet{kurukulasuriya2006ricardian} did an economic estimate in which 10% temperature increase leads to a 13% decline in net revenue for smallholder famers. 10% increase in precipitation would in turn, according to their calculations, lead to a 40% net increase in revenue.