Tanika Scherbinski edited Impacts Africa climate change.tex  almost 10 years ago

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\section{Predicted impacts for Africa}  Several studies have modelled and assessed the potential environmental and socio-economic impacts on the African content from climate change. Table \ref{table:literatureReview} provides a summary of the different studies. \citet{de_Wit_2006} assess that predicted precipitation changes will significantly affect present surface water access across 25\% of Africa's land surface by the end of this century. They estimate that a 10\% decrease in precipitation in regions with more than 1000 millimeters precipitation per year would reduce drainage by 17\%, regions with less than 500 millimeters would experience reduced drainage by up to 50\%. \citet{Hulme_2001} estimate a temperature increase between 2 to 6 $^{\circ}$C by 2100. Temperature changes will have different impacts on different regions in Africa and are strongly related to changes in precipitation. As such, \citet{Burke_2006} predict increased droughts over Northern Africa and a wetting over central Africa.  Most smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa practice rain-fed agriculture and depend on local hydrological feedbacks \cite{Lasco_2014}. \citep{Lasco_2014}.  Therefore increasing climate variabilities will have significant socio-economic impacts and several studies attempted to estimate these. A study done by \citet{Schlenker_2010} showed that damages to yields of typical crops such as maize, sorghum, millet and groundnut are likely to exceed 7\% by 2050 whilst yields from tropical crops such as rice could increase in regions with increasing flooding. This corresponds to other studies such as \citet{JONES_2003} who predict a 10\% decrease in maize production until 2050. \citet{Zinyengere_2013} predict even more severe yield reductions, with a 18\% decline for maize and an average crop decline of 30\% for wheat, beans and sugarcane until 2100. Overall, crop responses to increasing climate variability tend to be negative for sub-Saharan Africa. \citet{kurukulasuriya2006ricardian} did an economic estimate in which 10\% temperature increase leads to a 13\% decline in net revenue for smallholder famers. 10\% increase in precipitation would in turn, according to their calculations, lead to a 40\% net increase in revenue.