Robert Orzanna edited Impacts Africa climate change.tex  almost 10 years ago

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\section{Predicted impacts for Africa}  Several studies have modelled and assessed the potential socio-economic and environmental impacts on the African content from climate change. Table \ref{table:literatureReview} provides a summary of the different studies.  \citet{de_Wit_2006} assess that predicted precipitation changes will significantly affect present surface water access across 25\% of Africa Africa's land surface  by the end of this century. They estimate that a 10\% decrease in precipitation in regions with more than 1000 millimeters precipitation per year would reduce drainage by 17\%, regions with less than 500 millimeters would experience reduced drainage by up to 50\%. In climate modelling precipitation changes are related with temperature changes. \citet{Hulme_2001} estimate a temperature increase between 2 to 6\celsius by 2100. Temperature changes will have different impacts on different regions in Africa. As such, \citet{Burke_2006} predict increased droughts over Northern Africa and a wetting over central Africa.  These increasing climate variabilities will have significant socio-economic impacts.  A study done by \citet{Schlenker_2010} showed thatwith 95\% probability  damages to yields of typical crops such as maize, sorghum, millet and groundnut are likely to exceed 7\% by 2050. 2050 whilst yields from tropical crops such as rice could increase. This is in line with other studies such as  \citet{JONES_2003} who  predictin their models  a 10\% decrease in maize production until the mid-century. \citet{Hulme_2001} estimate 2050. \citet{Zinyengere_2013} predict even more severe yield reductions, with  a temperature increase between 2 to 6\celsius by 18\% decline for maize and an average crop decline of 30\% for wheat, beans and sugarcane until  2100. Overall, crop responses to increasing climate variability tend to be negative for sub-Saharan Africa.   Several studies evaluated the socio-econimic impacts of climate change.  \citet{kurukulasuriya2006ricardian} did an economic estimate in which 10\% temperature increase leadsto leads to  a 13\% decline in net revnue for smallholder famers. 10\% increase in preciptiation would in turn, according to their calculations, lead to a 40\% net increase in revenue.Another climate study done by \citet{Burke_2006} predict increased droughts over Northern Africa and a wetting over central Africa. Table \ref{table:literatureReview} provides a summary of the different studies.  With these impacts in mind, multiple authors performed research in order to predict crop responses due to climate change. In \citet{Zinyengere_2013} a comprehensive review of these studies was performed. The general conclusion is that the crop response on climate change will be negative for sub-Saharan Africa. Especially the maize yields will decline. An average decline of 18\% for the 21st century is predicted. Other crops of which the yield is predicted to decrease are wheat, beans and sugarcane. Rice however is predicted to have a larger yield due to climate change. Regardless of this one increase, an overall crop yield decrease of 30\% in Africa is among the predictions \cite{Zinyengere_2013}.  \textit{"Smallholder farmers in develop- ing countries, in particular Sub-Sahelian Africa largely practice rainfed agriculture and forestry, and therefore depend on complex interactions of monsoon systems and local heat and hydrological feedbacks which dictate the temporality and spatiality of rainfall [3–5]."} \cite{Lasco_2014}