Tanika Scherbinski edited Impacts Africa climate change.tex  almost 10 years ago

Commit id: 8daa28e3a0b14b3f5b763a22b03aa6a6e0fcedec

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Several studies have modelled and assessed the potential socio-economic and environmental impacts on the African content from climate change. \citet{de_Wit_2006} assess that predicted precipitation changes will significantly affect present surface water access across 25\% of Africa by the end of this century. A study done by \citet{Schlenker_2010} showed that with 95\% probability damages to yields of typical crops such as maize, sorghum, millet and groundnut are likely to exceed 7\% by 2050. \citet{JONES_2003} predict in their models a 10\% decrease in maize production until the mid-century. \citet{Hulme_2001} estimate a temperature increase between 2 to 6\circ C by 2100. \citet{kurukulasuriya2006ricardian} did an economic estimate in which 10\% temperature increase leadsto a 13\% decline in net revnue for smallholder famers. 10\% increase in preciptiation would in turn, according to their calculations, lead to a 40\% net increase in revenue. Another climate study done by \citet{Burke_2006} predict increased droughts over Northern Africa and a wetting over central Africa. Table \ref{table:literatureReview} provides a summary of the different studies.   With these impacts in mind, multiple authors performed research in order to predict crop responses due to climate change. In \citet{Zinyengere_2013} a comprehensive review of these studies was performed. The general conclusion is that the crop response on climate change will be negative for sub-Saharan Africa. Especially the maize yields will decline. An average decline of 18\% for the 21st century is predicted. Other crops of which the yield is predicted to decrease are wheat, beans and sugarcane. Rice however is predicted to have a larger yield due to climate change. Regardless of this one increase, an overall crop yield decrease of 30\% in Africa is among the predictions \cite{Zinyengere_2013}. \textit{"Smallholder farmers in develop- ing countries, in particular Sub-Sahelian Africa largely practice rainfed agriculture and forestry, and therefore depend on complex interactions of monsoon systems and local heat and hydrological feedbacks which dictate the temporality and spatiality of rainfall [3–5]."} \cite{Lasco_2014}