Abstract

The 15 January 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai underwater volcano injected a record amount of water directly into the stratosphere. This study attempts to quantify this impact on the temperature, as well as the subsequent changes to the stratospheric circulation, during the months following the eruption based on reanalysis fields. The extreme nature of the temperature, wind, and circulation changes are tracked through comparisons of the first six months of 2022 with the past 42 years. Examination of the data assimilation process shows that at 20 hPa the thermal observations are forcing temperatures to cool significantly, compensating for the absence of the excess stratospheric moisture in the model used for the reanalysis, resulting in unusually low temperatures. In response to this cooling the atmosphere adjusts by creating strong westerly winds above the temperature anomaly and large changes to the downward and poleward mean meridional circulation.