Glaziou edited section_Estimation_of_uncertainty_There__.tex  over 8 years ago

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\item estimation of incidence and mortality disaggregated by age and sex and disaggregated by drug resistance status.  \end{enumerate}  The general approach to uncertainty analyses was to draw values from specified distributions for every parameter (except for notifications and population values) in Monte Carlo simulations, with the number of simulation runs set so that they were sufficient to ensure stability in the outcome distributions. For each country, the same random generator seed was used for every year, and errors were assumed to be time-dependent within countries (thus generating autocorrelation in time series). Regional parameters were used in some instances (for example, for CFRs). Summaries of quantities of interest were obtained by extracting the mean, 2.5th and 97.5th centiles of posterior distributions. Wherever possible, uncertainty was propagated analytically by approximating the moments of functions of random variables using second-order  Taylor series expansion – such as when taking the product or the ratio of two random variables – rather than through Monte Carlo simulations, in order to shorten computing time.