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Glaziou edited section_Incidence_TB_incidence_has__.tex
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The ultimate goal is to directly measure TB incidence from TB notifications in all countries. This requires a combination of strengthened surveillance, better quantification of underreporting (i.e. the number of cases that are missed by surveillance systems) and universal access to health care. A TB surveillance checklist developed by the WHO Global Task Force on TB Impact Measurement defines the standards that need to be met for notification data to provide a direct measure of TB incidence. By August 2015, a total of 38 countries including 16 HBCs had completed the checklist.
Methods currently used by WHO to estimate TB incidence can be grouped into four major categories (Figure
1), \ref{fig:incmethods}), presented in the next section.
\begin{itemize}
\item Case notification data combined with expert opinion about case detection gaps (120 countries in red in Figure
1); \ref{fig:incmethods});
\item Results from national TB prevalence surveys (19 countries in blue);
\item Notifications in high-income countries adjusted by a standard factor to account for under-reporting and under-diagnosis (73 countries in green);
\item Capture recapture modelling (5 countries in purple).