Glaziou edited section_Estimation_of_uncertainty_There__.tex  over 8 years ago

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Missing national aggregates of new and recurrent cases were imputed by interpolation. Notification trajectories were smoothed using a penalized cubic splines function with parameters based on the data. Attempts to obtain corrections for historical data are made every year, but only rarely do countries provide appropriate data corrections.   Mortality estimates incorporated the following sources of uncertainty: sampling uncertainty in the underlying measurements of TB mortality rates from data sources, uncertainty in estimates of incidence rates and rates of HIV prevalence among both incident and notified TB cases, and parameter uncertainty in the Bayesian model. Time series of TB mortality were generated for each country through Monte Carlo simulations.   Unless otherwise specified, uncertainty bounds and ranges were defined as the 2.5th and 97.5th centiles of outcome distributions. Throughout this report, ranges with upper and lower bounds defined by these centiles are provided for all estimates established with the use of simulations. When uncertainty was established with the use of observed or other empirical data, 95% 95\%  confidence intervals are reported.   The model used the following sequence: (1) Overall TB incidence estimation after review and cleaning of case notification data; (2) cleaning and adjustment of raw mortality data from VR systems and mortality surveys, followed by imputation of missing values in countries with VR or survey data – in some countries, step 1 was updated to account for mortality data; (3) cleaning of measurements of HIV prevalence among TB patients followed by estimating HIV-positive TB incidence using the Spectrum programme and HIV-positive TB mortality; (4) estimation of HIV prevalence among incident cases of TB through modelling in countries with no measurements; (5) estimation of HIV-negative TB mortality in countries with no VR data followed with an update of step 1 in some countries; (6) review of prevalence measurements, adjustments for childhood TB and bacteriologically unconfirmed TB, and estimation of prevalence followed with an update of step 1 in some countries; (7) estimation of incidence and mortality disaggregated by age and sex and disaggregated by drug resistance status.