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\section{Incidence}  TB incidence has never been measured at national level because this would require long-term studies among large cohorts of people (hundreds of thousands), involving high costs and challenging logistics. Notifications of TB cases provide a good proxy indication of TB incidence in countries that have both high-performance surveillance systems (for example, there is little underreporting of diagnosed cases) and where the quality of and access to health care means that few cases are not diagnosed. In the large number of countries where these criteria are not yet met, better estimates of TB incidence can be obtained from an inventory study\cite{WHO2012} (an study. An  inventory study is a survey to quantify the level of underreporting of detected TB cases; if certain conditions are met, capture-recapture methods can also be used to estimate TB incidence). To date, such studies have been undertaken in only a few countries: examples include Egypt, Iraq, Pakistan and Yemen. incidence\cite{WHO2012}.  The ultimate goal of TB surveillance  is to directly measure TB incidence from TB national case  notifications in all countries. This requires a combination of strengthened surveillance, better quantification of underreporting (i.e. the number of newly diagnosed  cases that are missed by surveillance systems) and universal access to health care. care (to minimize under-diagnosis of cases).  A TB surveillance checklist developed by the WHO Global Task Force on TB Impact Measurement defines the standards that need to be met for notification data to provide a direct measure of TB incidence. incidence\cite{WHO2014}.  By August 2015, a total of 38 countries including 16 HBCs had completed the checklist. Methods currently used by WHO to estimate TB incidence can be grouped into four major categories (Figure \ref{fig:incmethods}), presented in categories. Figure \ref{fig:incmethods} shows  the next section. distribution of countries according to the four categories:  \begin{itemize}  \item Case notification data combined with expert opinion about case detection gaps (120 countries in red in Figure \ref{fig:incmethods});