There are some relatively small changes to estimates of TB incidence, mortality and prevalence for many countries that reflect new VR data reported to WHO between mid-2014 and mid-2015, updated WHO estimates of the total number of deaths from all causes (that provide overall mortality envelopes), updates to estimates of the burden of HIV-associated TB and new TB notification data including corrections made to historical data and updates to population sizes from the United Nations Population Division. In most instances, changes are well within the uncertainty intervals of previously published estimates of TB burden and time trends are generally consistent. Newly-reported data are the reason for small changes to estimates of the number of TB deaths among women and children and to the number of incident MDR-TB cases.

In Indonesia, estimates of TB mortality (HIV-negative) are for the first time obtained from the sample vital registration system, after adjustment for incomplete coverage and ill-defined causes of death. In South Africa, estimates of TB mortality (HIV-negative) were derived from the national vital registration system after adjustment for widespread miscoding of HIV and TB causes of deaths and obtained from IHME \cite{25059949}. The interpretation of death statistics in South Africa cannot be made on face value as a large proportion of deaths caused by HIV infection are misclassified\cite{15668545}.

In March 2015, the WHO Task Force on TB impact measurement reviewed methods for estimating TB burden (see Box b fix reference). The meeting recommended for the 2015 targets assessment that current WHO methods for estimation of TB incidence, mortality and prevalence should be used. The methods should not be changed now – the consensus was to “finish the cycle with established methods”. New methods should only be introduced, if available and proven to be better than current methods, after 2015.

The meeting recommended that WHO updates methods to estimate childhood TB incidence by combining with an ensemble approach estimates derived from case notifications adjusted for under-detection and under-reporting\cite{24671080} and estimates derived from dynamical modelling\cite{25103518}. Estimates of childhood TB incidence presented in this report reflect the recommendation. An additional recommendation from the meeting was for the estimation of HIV-positive TB mortality in children using a similar approach to that for disaggregating TB/HIV mortality by gender. This new estimate of HIV-positive TB mortality in children is incorporated for the first time in this year’s report.

Updates to burden estimates have drawn on new analyzes undertaken as part of in-depth epidemiological reviews. Epidemiological reviews are also helping to identify performance gaps in TB surveillance and form the basis of detailed and costed monitoring and evaluation plans. Estimates for Angola were revised based on discussions with experts from the National TB Programme and partners and should be considered preliminary pending the findings of an ongoing epidemiological review. Estimates for Kazakhstan reflect findings from a reassessment mission in close collaboration with the Ministry of Health.