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A Prediction model of relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit using the EMD-LSTM network and geomagnetic indices
  • +8
  • Hua Zhang,
  • Haoran Xu,
  • GuangShuai Peng,
  • Ye dong Qian,
  • Xiaoxin Zhang,
  • Guanglin Yang,
  • Chao Shen,
  • Zheng Li,
  • Jian wei Yang,
  • Zhiqiang WANG,
  • Fang He
Hua Zhang
Institute of Space Weather, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Haoran Xu
Institute of Space Weather, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
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GuangShuai Peng
Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
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Ye dong Qian
Najing university of Information Science & Technology
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Xiaoxin Zhang
China Meteorological Administration
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Guanglin Yang
National Forecasting Center for Space Weather
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Chao Shen
School of Science, Harbin Institute of Technology
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Zheng Li
Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
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Jian wei Yang
Najing university of Information Science & Technology
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Zhiqiang WANG
Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics
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Fang He
Polar Research Institute of China
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Abstract

In this study, the Empirical Mode Decomposition algorithm (EMD) and the Long Short Term Memory neural network (LSTM) were combined into an EMD-LSTM model, to predict the variation of the >2MeV electron fluxes. Input parameters include the Pc5 power and related geomagnetic indices are used for predictions. As compared the prediction results of the EMD-LSTM model with other classical prediction models, the results show that the one-day ahead prediction efficiency of the > 2MeV electron fluxes possesses a prediction efficiency of 0.80, and the highest prediction efficiency can reach 0.93. These results are superior to the prediction accuracy of more traditional models. Using two high-energy electron flux storm events for validation, the results indicate that the performance of the EMD-LSTM model in the period of the high-energy electron flux storm is also relatively good, especially for the prediction of high-energy electron fluxes at extreme points, and the prediction is closer to actual observation.