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Mesoscale and Synoptic Scale Analysis of Narrow Cold Frontal Rainband during a Landfalling Atmospheric River in California during January 2021
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  • Xun Zou,
  • Jason M. Cordeira,
  • Samuel M. Bartlett,
  • Brian Kawzenuk,
  • Shawn Roj,
  • Christopher M Castellano,
  • Chad W. Hecht,
  • F. Martin Ralph
Xun Zou
University of California, San Diego

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Jason M. Cordeira
University of California, San Diego
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Samuel M. Bartlett
University of California, San Diego
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Brian Kawzenuk
University of California, San Diego
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Shawn Roj
University of California, San Diego
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Christopher M Castellano
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
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Chad W. Hecht
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego
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F. Martin Ralph
SIO
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Abstract

Narrow cold-frontal rain bands (NCFR) often produce short-duration and high-intensity precipitation that can lead to flooding and debris flow in California (CA). On 27 January 2021, an atmospheric river (AR) associated with an intense surface cyclone made landfall over coastal northern CA, which featured a prominent NCFR. This study uses high-resolution West WRF simulations to accurately resolve the gap and core structure of the NCFR and provides reliable precipitation estimations, compensating for limitations of radar and satellite observations. This NCFR was supported by robust synoptic-scale quasi-geostrophic (QG) forcing for ascent and frontogenesis. It propagated southward from Cape Mendocino to Big Sur in 12 hours before stalling and rotating counter-clockwise in central/southern CA due to upstream Rossby wave breaking and amplifying upper-tropospheric trough. With the lower to middle tropospheric flow backed considerably to the south-southwest over the NCFR, the increase of the vertical wind shear caused the transition from parallel to trailing stratiform precipitation. The stall and pivot of the AR and NCFR led to intense rainfall with a 2-day precipitation accumulation greater than 300 mm over central CA. In addition, under the potential instability and frontogenesis, a moist absolutely unstable layer between 850 hPa to 700 hPa was captured at the leading edge of the NCFR, which indicated slantwise deep layer lifting and high precipitation efficiency. This study reveals synoptic-scale and mesoscale drivers of rainfall outside orographic lifting and reaffirms the importance of high-resolution numerical modeling for the prediction of extreme precipitation and related natural hazards.
13 Jun 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
14 Jun 2023Published in ESS Open Archive