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\section{Conclusions} \section{Summary and Conclusions}
\label{sec:Conclusions}
The peculiar transients \spockone and \spocktwo behind \macs0416 have
...
took to decline by 2 magnitudes to $\t2<6$ days---significantly
faster than almost all categories of explosive stellar phenomena.
%The lens models used here are diverse, but deliver a consistent
%story for the plausible range of time delays The
diverse lens models analyzed here all agree that the gravitational
lensing time delay between the two positions of the luminosities and rapid light curves for both \spock events
is
far shorter than the observed time difference are
marginally compatible with two categories of
$\sim$8 months. This
leads to theorized optical
transients: the
conclusion kilonova and .Ia classes. A key problem with these
models is that
the two events both are
from a single {\em
recurrent} source. This conclusion could expected to be
assailed by moving the
location of the lensing critical curve, so intrinsically quite rare, with
a rate that
it is
significantly
closer to one or the other orders of
magnitude less than the
two rate for normal SN
events.
This would drive up the
difference in the lensing potential between the two \spock positions,
and could lengthen Either the
lensing time delay, which is directly
proportional merger of a NS binary (leading to
a kilonova) or
the
lensing potential difference. However, this would
also substantially increase the inferred lensing magnification final shell explosion of
one
event, and simultaneously decrease $\mu$ an AM CVn system (causing a .Ia event)
would be a terminal event---there would be no opportunity for
a second
transient event. This conflicts with the
other event, making third of our primary
observational constraints, that the
inferred luminosities for two
transient episodes incompatible. \spock transients were
probably caused by two separate events at the source plane.
That inference that the two events are from a single {\em recurrent}
source is derived from analysis of our diverse set of lens models.
All agree that the gravitational lensing time delay between the two
positions of the \spock events is far shorter than the observed time
difference of $\sim$8 months. This conclusion could be assailed by
moving the location of the lensing critical curve, so that it is
significantly closer to one or the other of the two events. This
would drive up the difference in the lensing potential between the two
\spock positions, and could lengthen the lensing time delay, which is
directly proportional to the lensing potential difference. However,
this would also substantially increase the inferred lensing
magnification of one event, and simultaneously decrease $\mu$ for the
other event, making the inferred luminosities for the two transient
episodes less compatible with each other.
\todo{quickly summarize the exclusion Having ruled out most of the
kN and .Ia models based
on recurrence}
From these constraints
We have examined these usual suspects for extragalactic
transient events, we are left with two
models in comparison to models: the \spock system
is either a RN or an LBV. There are observed examples from both of
these classes that can separately match the three primary
observational
constraints: characteristics: the
peak luminosity (\Lpk), light curve
decline time (\t2),
the
peak luminosity (\Lpk), and
the recurrence timescale (\trec).
We However, we
have found that
the RN model is physically untenable. The light
curve shape is consistent with RN systems in our own galaxy and M31,
but the peak luminosity and recurrence timescale are at (or beyond)
the limits when we bring all three of
those constraints together
the
known RN
population. Indeed, these latter two
observables are, at best, only barely compatible with the model must be stretched to extreme physical
limits of the RN model. limits. The
inferred peak luminosity of the \spock events would require a primary
white dwarf that is extraordinarily close to the Chandresekhar limit.
The uniquely rapid recurrence timescale would imply a mass transfer
rate from the secondary star that is remarkably fast ($>10{-7} \Msun$
yr${-1}$). It is unclear whether these
two extremes are even physically
compatible as a RN system, as such a rapid mass transfer onto such a
massive white dwarf would likely result in stable nuclear burning at
the surface, and would therefore not lead to explosive burning
episodes that could be observed as rapid transient events.
Our preferred explanation for the \spock events is that we have
observed two distinct eruptive episodes from a massive LBV star.
\todo{Reiterate The
light curve shape is consistent with rapid LBV eruptions seen in
systems such as SN 2009ip and NGC 3432-LBV1. The peak luminosity and
recurrence timescale are also within the
phenomenoligical consistency}
We bounds of what has been
observed from nearby LBVs. The \spock episodes may have
found that been among
the
\spock fastest and most luminous of any rapid LBV events
are compatible yet
observed. However, no other rapid LBV outbursts have yet been observed
with
such a high cadence, so the
observed
properties of known detailed light curve shape can not be
rigorously compared against other events. In this scenario, the
\spock LBV
system would most likely have exhibited multiple eruptions
from over the
local universe.
\todo{Reiterate last few years, but most of them were missed, as they landed
within the
observational and physical consistency}
The very luminous and very fast \spock
transients may be driven by extreme mass eruption events, an extreme
form large gaps of
stellar pulsation, or may be caused by a different mechanism
entirely. the \HST Frontier Fields imaging program.
These We speculate that the very luminous and very fast \spock transients
may be driven by extreme mass eruption events
will only add or an extreme form of
stellar pulsation. Both of these mechanisms are likely to
the theoretical challenge occur in
LBV progenitor stars, but we do not have a robust model for precisely
how LBV eruptions are generated. This is a topic in need of
deriving significant theoretical work, with the end goal being a
comprehensive
physical model that accommodates both the
\etacar-like great eruptions
and the S Dor-type variation of LBVs.
The \spock events are extreme
in several dimensions, and will only add to this theoretical
challenge.
\todo{Close with a prescription for resolving The theoretical objective could be aided by additional observational
constraints on the
classification with
regular monitoring \spock system. If, as we have argued, this source
is indeed a recurrent system, then an observing campaign over $\sim$4
months should reveal at least one more transient event in one of the
field, and getting measurable time delays
that three host galaxy images. Capturing another transient episode with
similarly high cadence imaging could
provide definitively resolve our
remaining classification ambiguities. If the \spock source is a
rigorous test of RN,
then we would expect the recurrence timescale, the light curve shape,
and the
cluster mass models} peak luminosity to all be relatively consistent from episode
to episode (as is the case for the rapid recurrence RN M31N 2008a-12).
In contrast, for an LBV system we would expect to see much more
variety in all of those observational characteristics.
An observing campaign that catches additional transient episodes would
have another significant windfall. If multiple events in separate
images of the host galaxy can be definitively matched, then we could
extract a measure of the gravitational lensing time delay. Given the
very sharp structure of the light curve, we anticipate that these time
delay measurements could be extremely precise, perhaps constraining
the delay to within a few hours. This would offer a powerful test of
the lens models for this cluster, and in particular could be a very
sensitive check for systematic biases. When a suitable observational
program is enacted, we would urge lens modelers to make a concerted
effort to optimize their time delay estimates in advance of any time
delay measurements, in order to provide blind predictions for the most
robust empirical test.