srodney moved microlensing to the back (again)  over 7 years ago

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foreground cluster suggest that it is entirely plausible that the two  events are {\it spatially} coincident at the source plane, but very  unlikely that they were also {\it temporally} coincident. We find  that {\it Spock} can be explained as arecurrent nova, a  luminous blue variable, a  recurrent nova,  or a stellar caustic crossing event. High-cadence monitoring of the field could distinguish between these hypotheses by  detecting new transient episodes at or near the \spock locations.  \end{abstract}         

a more complete description of the operations of the FrontierSN  program, see \citet{Rodney:2015a}.  \subsection{X-ray Non-detections}\label{sec:Xray}  The MACS0416 field was observed by the SWIFT X-Ray Telescope (XRT) and  UltraViolet/Optical Telescope (UVOT) in April 2013. No source was  detected near the locations of the \spock events (N. Gehrels, private  communication). The field was also observed by the Chandra X-ray  space telescope with the ACIS-I instrument for three separate  programs. On June 7, 2009 it was observed for GO program 10800770  (PI: H.\,Ebeling). It was revisited for GTO program 15800052 (PI:  S.\,Murray) on November 20, 2013 and for GO program 15800858 (PI: C.\,  Jones) on June 9, August 31, November 26, and December 17, 2014. These  Chandra images show no evidence for an x-ray emitting point source  near the \spock locations on those dates (S. Murray, private  communication).   \subsection{Photometry}\label{sec:Photometry}         

To interpret the observed light curves and the timing of these two  events, we use six independently constructed cluster mass models to  determine the impact of gravitational lensing from the MACS0416  cluster (Methods \ref{sec:LensingModels}). The lensing scenario that  has been consistently adopted for this cluster is that the arc in  which the \spock events appeared comprises two mirror images of the  host galaxy \citep[labeled 11.1 and 11.2 in  Figure~\ref{fig:SpockDetectionImages};][]{Zitrin:2013a, Jauzac:2014,  Johnson:2014, Richard:2014, Diego:2015a, Grillo:2015a, Hoag:2016,  Sebesta:2016}. This implies that a single critical curve passes  roughly mid-way between the two observed \spock locations.  As reported in Table~\ref{tab:LensModelPredictions}, these our six  lens models predict absolute magnification values between about $\mu=10$ and $\mu=100$ for both events. This wide range is due primarily to the close proximity of the \spock\ events to the lensing critical curve (the region of theoretically infinite magnification) for sources at $z=1$. Note that the magnifications for \spockone\ and \spocktwo\ are highly correlated. A variation of a given lens model that moves the critical curve closer to the position of \spockone\ would drive the magnification of that event much higher (toward $\mu_1\sim100$), but that would also have the effect of moving the critical curve farther from \spocktwo\, which would necessarily drive its magnification downward (toward $\mu_2\sim10$). From each model we also extract two time delay predictions, given in Table~\ref{tab:LensModelPredictions}. We report all time delays relative to the \spockone\ event, which appeared in January 2014 in host image 11.2. %\renewcommand{\arraystretch}{1.5}  \begin{deluxetable}{lccccc}\label{tab:LensModelPredictions} 

\colhead{$\mu_3$}\\ \colhead{} & \colhead{(days)} &  \colhead{(years)} & \colhead{} & \colhead{} & \colhead{} }  \startdata  Bradac &42 $^{+13}_{-9}$ & -3.7 $\pm0.3$ & 90 $^{+61}_{-27}$ & 32 $^{+8}_{-10}$ & 3.6 $^{+0.2}_{-0.5}$\\[0.5em]  Bradac-v3 &  \nodata & \nodata & 38 $\pm8$ & 12.8 $\pm0.8$ & 2.9 $\pm0.1$\\[0.5em] Diego & -48$\pm$10 & 0.8 & 35$\pm$20 & 30$\pm$20&\\[0.5em]  Jauzac-A  & 29 $\pm3$ \nodata\\[0.5em]  %Jauzac-A & 29$\pm3$  & -2.2 $\pm0.1$ -2.2$\pm0.1$  & 36 $^{+4}_{-3}$ & 17 $\pm1$ & 4.5 $\pm0.1$\\[0.5em] Jauzac-B Jauzac  & 28 $^{+5}_{-7}$ 28$^{+5}_{-7}$  & -2.2 $^{+0.1}_{-0.2}$ -2.2$^{+0.1}_{-0.2}$  & 37 $\pm3$ & 18 $\pm2$ & 4.6 $\pm0.1$\\[0.5em] Jauzac-C %Jauzac-C  & 2.5 $^{+0.8}_{-1.0}$ 2.5$^{+0.8}_{-1.0}$  & -3.0 $\pm0.1$ -3.0$\pm0.1$  & 37 $^{+4}_{-3}$ & 16 $^{+1}_{-2}$ & 3.2 $\pm0.05$\\[0.5em] Kawamata & 4.1 $^{+5.5}_{-3.4}$ 4.1$^{+5.5}_{-3.4}$  & -5.0 $^{+0.5}_{-0.6}$ -5.0$^{+0.5}_{-0.6}$  & 29 $^{+43}_{-10}$ & 84 $^{+103}_{-38}$ & 3.0 $^{+0.2}_{-0.2}$\\[0.5em] Williams & -10 $^{+1}_{-7}$ -10$^{+1}_{-7}$  & -2.5 $^{+1.0}_{-3.1}$ -2.5$^{+1.0}_{-3.1}$  & 13 $^{+11}_{-6}$ & 12 $^{+9}_{-5}$ & 3.1 $^{+2.2}_{-0.9}$\\[0.5em] Zitrin & 42 $^{+13}_{-9}$ 42$^{+13}_{-9}$  & -3.7 $\pm0.3$ -3.7$\pm0.3$  & 90 $^{+61}_{-27}$ & 32 $^{+8}_{-10}$ & 3.6 $^{+0.2}_{-0.5}$\\ %% New Jauzac model predictions  %$\mu_{\rm NW}$ = 0.2 $^{+0.1}_{-0.1}$  %$\mu_{\rm SE}$ = 0.4 $^{+0.4}_{-0.1}$ 

\end{deluxetable}  %\renewcommand{\arraystretch}{1.}  \subsection{Microlensing}\label{sec:MicroLensing}  In the presence of strong gravitational lensing it is possible to  generate a transient event from lensing effects alone. In this case  the background source has a steady luminosity but the relative motion  of the source, lens, and observer causes the magnification of that  source (and therefore the apparent brightness) to change rapidly with  time. An isolated strong lensing event with a rapid timescale can be  generated when a background star crosses over a lensing critical  curve. In the case of a star crossing the caustic of a smooth lensing  potential, the amplification of the source flux would increase  (decrease) with a characteristic $t^{-1/2}$ profile as it moves toward  (away from) the caustic. This slowly evolving light curve then  transitions to a very sharp decline (rise) when the star has moved to  the other side of the caustic \citep{Schneider:1986,  MiraldaEscude:1991}. With a more complex lens comprising many  compact objects, the light curve would exhibit a superposition of many  such sharp peaks \citep{Lewis:1993}.  The peculiar transient {\it Icarus}, observed behind the Hubble  Frontier Fields cluster MACS J1149.6+2223, has been proposed as the  first observed example of such a stellar caustic crossing event  (P. Kelly et al., in prep). Kelly et al. find that such events may be  expected to appear more frequently in strongly lensed galaxies that  have small angular separation from the center of a massive cluster. In  such a situation, our line of sight to the lensed background galaxy  passes through a dense web of overlapping micro-lenses caused by the  intracluster stars distributed around the center of the cluster. This  has the effect of ``blurring'' the magnification profile across the  cluster critical curve, making it more likely that a single (and rare)  massive star in the background galaxy gets magnified by the required  factor of $\sim10^5$ to become visible as a transient caustic crossing  event. On this basis the \spock host galaxy images are suitably  positioned for caustic crossing transients, as they are seen through a  relatively high density of intracluster stars---comparable to that  observed for the {\it Icarus} transient (Methods \ref{sec:ICL}).  The characteristic timescale of a canonical caustic crossing event  would be on the order of hours or days (Methods  \ref{sec:Microlensing}), which is comparable to the timescales  observed for the \spock events. Furthermore, since gravitational  lensing is achromatic, the color of a caustic crossing transient will  be constant. Using simplistic linear interpolations of the observed  light curves (Methods \ref{sec:LightCurves}) we find that the inferred  color curves for both \spock events are marginally consistent with  this expectation of an unchanging color (Methods  \ref{sec:ColorCurves}).  The lensing scenario that has been consistently adopted for this host  galaxy \todo{add references} is that a single critical curve passes  roughly mid-way between the two observed \spock locations. Each event  then belongs to one of two images (11.1 and 11.2 in  Figure~\ref{fig:SpockDetectionImages}) that comprise the long arc of  the host galaxy. In this case, the \spock events can not plausibly be  explained as stellar caustic crossings, because neither transient is  close enough to the single critical curve to reach the required  magnifications of $\mu\sim10^6$.  Some lens models can, however, be modified so that instead of just two  host images, the lensed galaxy arc is made up of many more images of  the host, with multiple critical curves subtending the arc where the  \spock events appeared. By tuning the assumed masses of cluster  galaxies near the \spock host, those multiple critical curves can be  made to pass very close to the positions of the two \spock transient  events. In the {\it Kawamata} and {\it Diego} lens models, this  alternative lensing scenario requires that the masses of the two  nearest cluster galaxies are increased by $30-60\%$. With this  adjustment, both models can reproduce the observed morphology of the  HFF14Spo host galaxy as a smooth, unbroken arc. These model  realizations imply magnifications on the order of $\mu\sim1000$ for  both \spock transients. If this alternative lensing scenario is  correct, then similar microlensing transients would be expected to  appear at different locations along the host galaxy arc, instigated by  new caustic crossing episodes from different stars in the host galaxy.  \subsection{Ruling Out Common Astrophysical Transients}  Instead of relying on lensing effects alone to explain the rise and  fall of the \spock events, we might instead invoke some astrophysical  transient source in the host galaxy. There are several categories of astrophysical transients that cannot accommodate the light curve  characteristics of the \spock transients. We may first dismiss any of  the category of {\it periodic} sources (e.g. Cepheids, RR Lyrae, or 

% require substantial fine-tuning of the lens models in order to  % accommodate multiple critical curves that still map the spock events  % back to the same location on the source plane.  \subsection{Microlensing}\label{sec:MicroLensing}  In the presence of strong gravitational lensing it is possible to  generate a transient event from lensing effects alone. In this case  the background source has a steady luminosity but the relative motion  of the source, lens, and observer causes the magnification of that  source (and therefore the apparent brightness) to change rapidly with  time. An isolated strong lensing event with a rapid timescale can be  generated when a background star crosses over a lensing critical  curve. In the case of a star crossing the caustic of a smooth lensing  potential, the amplification of the source flux would increase  (decrease) with a characteristic $t^{-1/2}$ profile as it moves toward  (away from) the caustic. This slowly evolving light curve then  transitions to a very sharp decline (rise) when the star has moved to  the other side of the caustic \citep{Schneider:1986,  MiraldaEscude:1991}. With a more complex lens comprising many  compact objects, the light curve would exhibit a superposition of many  such sharp peaks \citep{Lewis:1993}.  The peculiar transient {\it Icarus}, observed behind the Hubble  Frontier Fields cluster MACS J1149.6+2223, has been proposed as the  first observed example of such a stellar caustic crossing event  (P. Kelly et al., in prep). Kelly et al. find that such events may be  expected to appear more frequently in strongly lensed galaxies that  have small angular separation from the center of a massive cluster. In  such a situation, our line of sight to the lensed background galaxy  passes through a dense web of overlapping micro-lenses caused by the  intracluster stars distributed around the center of the cluster. This  has the effect of ``blurring'' the magnification profile across the  cluster critical curve, making it more likely that a single (and rare)  massive star in the background galaxy gets magnified by the required  factor of $\sim10^5$ to become visible as a transient caustic crossing  event. On this basis the \spock host galaxy images are suitably  positioned for caustic crossing transients, as they are seen through a  relatively high density of intracluster stars---comparable to that  observed for the {\it Icarus} transient (Methods \ref{sec:ICL}).  The characteristic timescale of a canonical caustic crossing event  would be on the order of hours or days (Methods  \ref{sec:Microlensing}), which is comparable to the timescales  observed for the \spock events. Furthermore, since gravitational  lensing is achromatic, the color of a caustic crossing transient will  be constant. Using simplistic linear interpolations of the observed  light curves (Methods \ref{sec:LightCurves}) we find that the inferred  color curves for both \spock events are marginally consistent with  this expectation of an unchanging color (Methods  \ref{sec:ColorCurves}).  In the baseline lensing scenario adopted above---where a single  critical curve subtends the \spock host galaxy arc---these events can  not plausibly be explained as stellar caustic crossings, because  neither transient is close enough to the single critical curve to  reach the required magnifications of $\mu\sim10^6$. Some lens models  can, however, be modified so that instead of just two host images, the  lensed galaxy arc is made up of many more images of the host, with  multiple critical curves subtending the arc where the \spock events  appeared. By tuning the assumed masses of cluster galaxies near the  \spock host, those multiple critical curves can be made to pass very  close to the positions of the two \spock transient events. In the  {\it Kawamata} and {\it Diego} lens models, this alternative lensing  scenario requires that the masses of the two nearest cluster galaxies  are increased by $30-60\%$. With this adjustment, both models can  reproduce the observed morphology of the HFF14Spo host galaxy as a  smooth, unbroken arc. These model realizations imply magnifications  on the order of $\mu\sim1000$ for both \spock transients. If this  alternative lensing scenario is correct, then similar microlensing  transients would be expected to appear at different locations along  the host galaxy arc, instigated by new caustic crossing episodes from  different stars in the host galaxy.         

%% This BibTeX bibliography file was created using BibDesk.  %% http://bibdesk.sourceforge.net/  %% Created for rodney at 2017-01-22 11:15:41 2017-01-23 10:12:15  -0500 %% Saved with string encoding Unicode (UTF-8)   @article{Hoag:2016,  Author = {{Hoag}, A. and {Huang}, K.-H. and {Treu}, T. and {Brada{\v c}}, M. and {Schmidt}, K.~B. and {Wang}, X. and {Brammer}, G.~B. and {Broussard}, A. and {Amorin}, R. and {Castellano}, M. and {Fontana}, A. and {Merlin}, E. and {Schrabback}, T. and {Trenti}, M. and {Vulcani}, B.},  Journal = {\apj},  Month = nov,  Pages = {182},  Title = {{The Grism Lens-Amplified Survey from Space (GLASS). VI. Comparing the Mass and Light in MACS J0416.1-2403 Using Frontier Field Imaging and GLASS Spectroscopy}},  Volume = 831,  Year = 2016}  @article{Eliasdottir:2007,  Author = {{El{\'{\i}}asd{\'o}ttir}, {\'A}. and {Limousin}, M. and {Richard}, J. and {Hjorth}, J. and {Kneib}, J.-P. and {Natarajan}, P. and {Pedersen}, K. and {Jullo}, E. and {Paraficz}, D.},  Journal = {ArXiv e-prints}, 

Volume = {arXiv:1509.08914},  Year = 2015}  @article{Diego:2015b, @article{Diego:2015c,  Author = {{Diego}, J.~M. and {Broadhurst}, T. and {Chen}, C. and {Lim}, J. and {Zitrin}, A. and {Chan}, B. and {Coe}, D. and {Ford}, H.~C. and {Lam}, D. and {Zheng}, W.},  Journal = {ArXiv e-prints},  Month = apr, 

Volume = 91,  Year = 2015}  @article{Diego:2015, @article{Diego:2015b,  Author = {{Diego}, J.~M. and {Broadhurst}, T. and {Molnar}, S.~M. and {Lam}, D. and {Lim}, J.},  Journal = {\mnras},  Month = mar,         

figures/composite_lens_model_contours/composite_lens_model_contours.png  LensingModels.tex  Microlensing.tex Xray.tex  figures/light_curve_linear_fits/light_curve_linear_fits.png  figures/spock_colorcurves_observerframe/spock_colorcurves_observerframe.png  LightCurves.tex  ColorCurves.tex  figures/spock_hostgalaxy_properties/spock_hostgalaxy_properties.png  figures/muse_oii_sequence/muse_oii_sequence.png  HostGalaxy.tex 

figures/recurrent_nova_recurrence_comparison/recurrent_nova_recurrence_comparison.png  RN.tex  Microlensing.tex  ColorCurves.tex      Binary files a/spock_localbuild.pdf and b/spock_localbuild.pdf differ