Steven A. Rodney edited LensingModels.tex  over 8 years ago

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\tablecaption{Time delay and magnification predictions from lens models}  \tablehead{   \colhead{Model} & \colhead{$\Delta t_{11.1}$} & \colhead{$\Delta t_{11.3}$} & \colhead{$\mu_1$} & \colhead{$\mu_2$} & \colhead{$\mu_3}\\  \colhead{}  & \colhead{(days)} & \colhead{(years)} & \colhead{}  & \colhead{}  & \colhead{}  \\ }   \startdata  Diego & -48$\pm$10 & 0.8 & 35$\pm$20 & 30$\pm$20 & \\ 

\enddata  \end{deluxetable}  These models provide estimates for the absolute magnifications due to gravitational lensing from the MACSJ0416 \macs0416\  cluster, reported in Table~\ref{tab:LensModelPredictions}. Although the models generally agree on median magnification values in the range 20-40 for both events, the uncertainties on these magnifications are very large, due primarily to the close proximity of the \spock\ events to the lensing critical curve for sources at $z=1$ \textcolor{red}{A GOOD CITATION FOR THIS GENERAL TRAIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASING NEAR CRITICAL CURVES?}. Note that the magnifications for \spockone\ and \spocktwo\ are highly correlated. A variation of a given lens model that moves the critical curve closer to the position of \spockone\ would drive the magnification of that event much higher (toward $\mu_1\sim60$), but that would also have the effect of moving the critical curve farther from \spocktwo\, which would necessarily drive its magnification downward (toward $\mu_2\sim10$). From each model we also extract two time delay predictions, given in Table~\ref{tab:LensModelPredictions}. We report all time delays relative to the \spockone\ event, which appeared in January 2014 in host image 11.2. That same transient episode must have also appeared in the adjacent host galaxy image 11.1 and again in image 11.3, but at different times, due primarily to the \citet{Shapiro:1964} delay. We ask when the \spockone\ event should have been observed in the adjacent host image 11.1, and label this as the "\spockone-11.1" delay, given as $\Delta t_{11.1}$ in Table~\ref{tab:LensModelPredictions}. The opposite of that time delay gives a prediction for the "\spocktwo-11.2 delay": the time difference between the August 2014 \spocktwo\ event and its expected appearance in host image 11.2. Although the models disagree on the arrival sequence, they are consistent in predicting the time delay between an appearance in image 11.1 and image 11.3, $\Delta t_{11.3}$, is on the order of 1-10 years.