this is for holding javascript data
Bart van Merriƫnboer edited Approach.tex
over 10 years ago
Commit id: 4af03e8d517bf688a00cd789dc89ee735fb7c806
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index 4051a0d..caecf56 100644
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\[
\widehat{\lambda} = \frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^n k_i.
\]
Perhaps it is a good idea to use maximum likelihood estimation to fit the estimates from the 4 (or 3, if we want a hold-out set) to a normal distribution $\lambda\sim\mathcal{N}\left(a,b\right)$ so that we can get a confidence interval for the value of $\lambda$ at each time of day. There are also papers out there which talk about more advanced methods of fitting an inhomogeneous Poisson process. This one has a nice overview: http://www.orsj.or.jp/~archive/pdf/e_mag/Vol.42_4_471.pdf