Matteo Cantiello edited section_Option_2_The_Lifetime__.tex  about 9 years ago

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\section*{Option 2: The Lifetime of Communicative Civilizations is short}  The other option is that intelligent life is common, but that the time an advanced civilization spends reaching out to potential galactic neighbors is short. There could be all sort of reasons for that, including transition to more efficient forms of communication than electromagnetic signals, singularity and a loss of interest in exploration. However self-annihilation through nuclear war or the exhaustion of natural resources definitely comes come  to mind as viable options. Therefore in this scenario the absence of contact tell us something important about the future of our own civilization, i.e. that there should be an important transition for our species happening in a short timescale $L$. We can't say for sure what will happen, beside that radio silence will follow. But we can estimate \textbf{when} that will happen. Below I show the date is not too far away: $L_{\rm Humankind} \approx L <$ \textbf{thousand years}\footnote{this number depends on some bold assumptions and should be considered just a ballpark estimate}. So in this scenario the real message is the absence of a message. Scary.