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\section*{Option 2: The Lifetime of Communicative Civilization is short}  It could be instead that intelligent life is common, but that the time an advanced civilization spends reaching out to potential stellar neighbors is short. There could be different reasons for this, including transition to more efficient forms of communication than electromagnetic signals, loss of interest, singularity... Nevertheless self-annhilation / exhaustion of natural resources is a realistic possibility. Therefore in this scenario the absence of contact tell us something important about the future of our own civilization, i.e. there should be an important transition in what we are happening in a short timescale $L$. We can't say for sure what kind of transition (beside that radio silence will follow), but we can estimate when that will happen. Below I show this number is pretty small, $t < 1000...3000$ years.