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One of the most important factors in the equation is $f_l$, the fraction of Earth-like planets in the habitable zone that develop life. It is a measure of the likelihood of \textbf{life emergence}.
Here I
will not won't get into the interesting but complex debate about the definition of "life". Instead I will use an operative, somewhat restrictive definition: "life as we know
it", loosely it". Loosely meaning anything similar to what we've seen on Earth. One has to start somewhere.
How can we estimate the likelihood of life emergence? If life was
impossible impossible, nobody would know about it. Similarly, the fact that we see life on Earth can not be used to draw conclusions on how widespread
is life
is in the
Universe, since Universe; if Earth
was were the only life-hosting planet in the cosmos, we would necessarily
have to be living there.
However, finding just another place outside
the Earth where life can be supported changes everything. Evidence of life (even fossil) on Mars or on
one of the moons a moon of Saturn or Jupiter would demonstrate that the emergence of life (biogenesis) does not require a very narrow, unlikely set of conditions.
I strongly believe we'll see proof of the existence of life in other regions of the solar system very soon. Until that
moment moment, an interesting argument
that is used to constrain $f_l$ is the rapidity of biogenesis on Earth.
The argument It is the following: imagine a lottery with life as first prize. If the emergence of life is a
very unlikely \textbf{very unlikely} outcome (requiring very specific conditions), then to win
the lottery one \textbf{one has to play many
times, just because times} to get the winning
ticket is one out of very many. ticket. If on the other hand winning the lottery is relatively easy
(many (either many winning tickets, or
if you want many different combinations of
the environmental conditions
can lead to life) one needs to play just a few times before winning.
It turns out that biogenesis on Earth was fairly rapid compared to
geological times. geologic timescales. Using a conservative upper limit of 600 million years
required by life to emerge once the for conditions
were to be "stable
enough", constrains enough" for life to emerge, the probability of biogenesis
in on terrestrial
(Earth-like) planets
is constrained to those older than 1 billion
years to be years, greater than $13\%$ \cite{Lineweaver_Davis_2002}. That
is to say is, about 1 in 10 Earth-like planets in the habitable zone should develop life.
\begin{quote}
$f_l \ge 0.13$
\\ \end{quote}\\
I am pretty confident life as we know it is widespread in the Universe: Microbial life is likely present in several places in our solar system as well as in a large fraction of the billions of planets in the cosmos.