Justin Ketterman edited 2.tex  about 9 years ago

Commit id: 9ce1a945ba69f4bdabe2f0136e729d727a8bbc7e

deletions | additions      

       

\[AVG = \frac{H}{AB}\]  \par  So I go to various universities and find a number of candidates who have incredible averages. But let’s say we have a bunch of them who have a small standard deviation between them, say .375 ± .1. How do I know which ones to choose? Well, in order to win in baseball, at least on the offensive side, we need to score as many runs as possible. So the player who can get the most number of bases with the least number of at bats would be more valuable. This statistic is known as the Slugging Percentage.  \[SLG = Total Bases/# of At Bats\] \frac{TB}{AB}\]  The problem with SLG is that it only measures official at bats. So any sacrifice balls or walks are not recorded. This means that it’s leaving out a bunch of potential runs that the batter is earning. So, we can add these factors into our formula. Adding walks, hit by pitch, and sacrifice flies, we can get a better representation of how well they will perform. It’s known as the on-base percentage.  \[OBP = Hits + Walks + Hit by Pitch / # of At Bats + Walks + Hit by Pitch + Sacrifice Flies\] \frac{H+BB+HBP}{AB+BB+HBP+SF}\]  Given this information, I now know what to look for in my offense and how to make the tough decision of who to choose from in a sample of excellent batters. Next up, I’ll need some pitchers who can keep the other team from scoring.  \paragraph{What Makes a Great Pitcher?}  A great pitcher can change an entire game single-handedly. They control the strikes and walks that occur. But once the batter makes contact with the ball, the rest of the defense is left up to the players in the field. We’re going to focus primarily on the pitcher, however. If the rest of the defense is playing at league average, we can use a metric known as the Fielding Independent Pitching.  \[FIP = 13 * Home runs \frac{13HR  + 3 * walks 3BB  – 2* strikeouts / innings pitched 2K}{IP}  + C\] The constant C is to make the figure look more like the scale used for Earned Run Average (ERA). The ERA is another formula used to show how many runs a pitcher lets allows in a given game.  \[ERA = \]  The lower the averages of these two metrics, the less likely the other team is to score. So now to go and find some pitchers with excellent FIP and ERA scores.