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volume = {5},  year = {1980},  }  @article{Simard1985a,  author = {Simard, Albert and Haines, Donald and Main, William},  doi = {10.1016/0168-1923(85)90001-2},  file = {:Users/danielpazmino/Documents/My\_research/Papers/Climate modes of variability/ENSO and fire/Simards et al (1985).Relations between El Nino Southernn Oscillation Anomalies and Wildland fire activity in the Univerited States..pdf:pdf},  journal = {Agricultural and Forst Meterology},  pages = {93--104},  title = {{Reltions between El Nino/Southern Oscillation anomalies and wildland fire activity in the United States}},  volume = {36},  year = {1985},  }  @article{Swetnam1983,  author = {Swetnam, Thomas and Betancourt, Julio},  doi = {doi:10.1126/SCIENCE.249.4972.1017},  file = {:Users/danielpazmino/Documents/My\_research/Papers/Climate modes of variability/ENSO and fire/Swetnam and Betancourt (1990).pdf:pdf},  journal = {Science},  pages = {1017--1020},  title = {{Fire-Southern Oscillation Relations in the Southwestern United States}},  volume = {249},  year = {1990},  }  @article{Kitzberger2002,  abstract = {Composite series of ENSO indices recorded over 36 months preceding major fire years in four National Parks in northern Patagonia were compared with series of these indices for individual years over the period 1950-1996 by means of an additive temporal phase coherence index. Logistic regressions of the dichotomous variable high vs low regional fire occurrence against the coherence index gained highest significant classificatory power using an index based on SST anomaly data between January of year -3 to August of year -1, Thus, warnings of extreme fire seasons could be declared as early as 3 months before the full fire season starts (i.e. early September). A regional fire season readiness index is proposed based on the periodicity of the Southern Oscillation, strong links with climate at particular regions of the globe, and empirically derived climatic controls on fine fuel buildup and coarse fuel desiccation. This long-range alerting tool could help decision-makers prepare preventative measures to mitigate the effects of large, high intensity wildfire seasons. However, it should be used with caution given that differences in timing in the onset of ENSO events and instability in teleconnection patterns could change climatic sequences, differentially affecting fire susceptibility.},  author = {Kitzberger, Thomas},  doi = {10.1071/WF01041},  file = {:Users/danielpazmino/Documents/My\_research/Papers/Climate modes of variability/ENSO and fire/Kitzberger (2002). ENSO as a forewarning tool of regional fire occurrence in northern Patagonia, Argentina.pdf:pdf},  isbn = {1049-8001},  issn = {10498001},  journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire},  keywords = {ENSO,El Ni??o,Forecasting,Patagonia,Regional fire occurrence},  number = {1},  pages = {33--39},  title = {{ENSO as a forewarning tool of regional fire occurrence in northern Patagonia, Argentina}},  volume = {11},  year = {2002},  }  @article{Beckage2003,  abstract = {Disturbances that are strongly linked to global climatic cycles may occur in a regular, predictable manner that affects composition and distribution of ecological communities. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences worldwide precipitation patterns and has occur-red with regular periodicity over the last 130000 years. We hypothesized that ENSO, through effects on local weather conditions, has influenced frequency and extent of fires within Everglades National Park (Florida, USA). Using data from 1948 to 1999, we found that the La Nina phase of ENSO was associated with decreased dry-season rainfall, lowered surface water levels, increased lightning strikes, more fires, and larger areas burned. In contrast, the El Nino phase was associated with increased dry-season rainfall, raised surface water levels, decreased lightning strikes, fewer fires, and smaller areas burned. Shifts between ENSO phases every few years have likely influenced vegetation through periodic large-scale fires, resulting in a prevalence of fire-influenced communities in the Everglades landscape.},  author = {Beckage, Brian and Platt, William J. and Slocum, Matthew G. and Panko, Bob},  doi = {10.1890/02-0183},  file = {:Users/danielpazmino/Documents/My\_research/Papers/Climate modes of variability/ENSO and fire/Beckage et al (2003). Influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation on fire regimes in the Florida Everglades .pdf:pdf},  isbn = {0012-9658},  issn = {0012-9658},  journal = {Ecology},  keywords = {area burned,el nin,enso,everglades,fire,florida,global warming,la nin,o},  number = {12},  pages = {3124--3130},  title = {{Influence of the El NinÌo Southern Oscillation on Fire Regimes in the Florida Everglades}},  volume = {84},  year = {2003},  }  @article{Wooster2012,  abstract = {Borneo (Indonesia) is Earth's third largest island, and the location of both extensive areas of rainforest and tropical peatlands. It is the site of both regular (seasonal) biomass burning associated with deforestation, land cover change and agricultural production preparations, and occasional, but much more severe, extreme fire episodes releasing enormous volumes of carbon from burning vegetation and peat. These extreme fire episodes are believed to result from anthropogenic practices related to (the still ongoing) forest degradation and clearance activities, whose impact with regard to fire is magnified by the effects of El Nino related drought. Since 2000, data from the MODIS Earth Observation satellite instruments have been used to study fire on Borneo, but earlier large fire events remain less well documented. Here we focus on a series of large fire episodes prior to the MODIS era, and specifically a 20 yr period covering both the two strongest El Nino events on record (1997-1998 and 1982-1983), along with an unprecedented series of more frequent, but weaker, El Ninos. For the five El Ninos occurring between 1980 and 2000, we develop quantitative measures of the fire activity across Borneo based on active fire counts derived from NOAA AVHRR Global Area Coverage (GAC) Earth Observation satellite data. We use these metrics to investigate relationships between the strength and timing of the El Nino event, the associated drought, and the fire activity. During each El Nino, we find areas of major fire activity confined within two or three fire sub-seasons (separated by monsoons) and focused in parts of South and Central Kalimantan, and sometimes also in East and/or West Kalimantan. For each El Nino we investigate various lag correlations, and find relationships of similar strength between monthly rainfall deficit and fire, but of more variable strength between indices of El Nino strength (ENSO indices) and rainfall deficit. The two strongest El Nino episodes (1982-1983 and 1997-1998) are accompanied by the most abundant fires (two and three times the active fire count seen in the next largest fire year), and the strongest correlations between measures of El Nino strength, rainfall and fire. We find the most significant positive statistical association between an ENSO index and fire activity to be that between the 16-month (first and second fire sub-seasons) cumulative NINO3 anomaly and the simultaneously recorded active fire count (r = 0.98, based on the five El Nino episodes between 1980 and 2000), although we find a negative association of equal strength between the cumulative NINO4 index and active fire count when considered over the entire two year duration of each El Nino episode (first, second and third fire sub-seasons). Our results confirm that the El Nino phenomenon, via its effect on precipitation, is a primary large-scale, short-term climatic factor that has a strong control on the magnitude of the fire activity resulting from the numerous land cover changes, agricultural preparation practices and human-caused ignitions occurring annually across Borneo. The results also suggest that ENSO forecasting maybe a realistic means of estimating the extent and magnitude of this fire activity some months in advance, thus offering some potential for forecasting effects on the remaining forest and peatland resource and the regional atmosphere.},  author = {Wooster, M. J. and Perry, G. L W and Zoumas, a.},  doi = {10.5194/bg-9-317-2012},  file = {:Users/danielpazmino/Documents/My\_research/Papers/Climate modes of variability/ENSO and fire/Wooster et al (2012). Fire, drought and El Nino relationships on Borneo (Southeast Asia) in the pre-MODIS era (1980-2000).pdf:pdf},  isbn = {1726-4170},  issn = {17264170},  journal = {Biogeosciences},  number = {1},  pages = {317--340},  title = {{Fire, drought and El Ni\~{n}o relationships on Borneo (Southeast Asia) in the pre-MODIS era (1980-2000)}},  volume = {9},  year = {2012},  }  @article{Carmona-Moreno2005,  abstract = {Daily global observations from the Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometers on the series of meteorological satellites operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration between 1982 and 1999 were used to generate a new weekly global burnt surface product at a resolution of 8 km. Comparison with independently available information on fire locations and timing suggest that while the time-series cannot yet be used to make accurate and quantitative estimates of global burnt area it does provide a reliable estimate of changes in location and season of burning on the global scale. This time-series was used to characterize fire activity in both northern and southern hemispheres on the basis of average seasonal cycle and interannual variability. Fire seasonality and fire distribution data sets have been combined to provide gridded maps at 0.51 resolution documenting the probability of fire occurring in any given season for any location. A multiannual variogram constructed from 17 years of observations shows good agreement between the spatialâtemporal behavior in fire activity and the âEl Nin Ìoâ Southern Oscillation events, showing highly likely connections between both phenomena.},  author = {Carmona-Moreno, C\'{e}sar and Belward, Alan and Malingreau, Jean Paul and Hartley, Andrew and Garcia-Alegre, Maria and Antonovskiy, Mikhail and Buchshtaber, Victor and Pivovarov, Victor},  doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01003.x},  file = {:Users/danielpazmino/Documents/My\_research/Papers/Climate modes of variability/ENSO and fire/Carmona-Moreno et al (2005). Characterizing interannual variations in global fire calandar using data from Earth observing satallites.pdf:pdf},  isbn = {1354-1013},  issn = {13541013},  journal = {Global Change Biology},  keywords = {El Ni\~{n}o southern oscillation (ENSO),Fire activity seasonal cycle,Global burnt surfaces time series,Global fire dynamics},  number = {9},  pages = {1537--1555},  title = {{Characterizing interannual variations in global fire calendar using data from Earth observing satellites}},  volume = {11},  year = {2005},  }