Daniel Pazmino edited untitled.tex  over 8 years ago

Commit id: 41fea44115a903c5c735dd039c4718925de74915

deletions | additions      

       

Having an extended FFDI dataset allowed us to investigate the influence of ENSO over seasonal wildfire variability in Ecuador. Table 2 shows linear correlation's 'r' coefficients of seasonal ENSO metrics with FFDI. The table shows how the evolution of ENSO in previous—and the concurrent season—is associated with wildfire potential. Previous seasons start one year earlier on October-November-December (OND), and continue in three-months intervals including the wildfire season July-August-September (JAS). This correlations show that the influence of ENSO is associated to wildfire potential in the preceding (AMJ) and concurrent (JAS) season. ENSO does not seem to have a direct relationship further back in time. This is valid using the SOI and Niño 3.4 indexes.   This investigation also explored the relationship between ENSO and extreme wildfire seasons. Our definition of extreme wildfire seasons filtered years with cumulative FFDI above the 85th 90th  percentile for the period 1963-212. Table 3 shows that the most extreme seasons during this period were 1982, 1991, 1997, 2009 and 2012. Each season was compared with historical categorizations of strength of ENSO events. \section{Discussion}