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\subsubsection{Investigation of ENSO influence over wildfire seasons}
WE We used two approaches to investigate ENSO's link over wildfire seasons. Firstly, it was important to know the influence of ENSO in the months leading the wildfire season JAS. Thus, we applied linear correlations of ENSO indexes seasonal averages with FFDI values. These averages comprised three-months seasons starting from October-November-December (OND) of the previous year. The correlation also included the SOI and Niño 3.4 values for the concurrent JAS season. A second approach compared the extreme wildfire seasons with ENSO's categories of intensity. We used the categories proposed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
\section{Results}
Figure 1 shows
the probability density distributions (PDFs) PDFs for each wildfire weather variable. These results represent the deviations between original WS and 20CR reanalysis data. All 20CR PDFs have deviations from the WS data. The daily deviations from the mean including all seasons are 8.9 \textsuperscript{o}C (Tmax), 11 (RH), 1.6 m/s (W) and 4.5 mm (P).
Figure 2 presents time series of the same
variables, type of data and period. variables. The values correspond to seasonal averages for Tmax, RH and W during
July-August-September (JAS). JAS. P corresponds to a seasonal sum.
The figure shows Pearson's linear correlation coefficients
between 20CR and WS data for for 16
seasons are: a) Tmax (r=0.36,p=0.17), b) RH (r=0.14,p=0.59), c) seasons. The results were statistically significant only for W
(r=0.52,p=0.04), and
d) P (r=0.33, p=0.21). (r=0.52,p=0.04).
The bias-correction process comprised the application of linear scaling techniques for every wildfire
weather variable. However, the bias-corrected of all variables did not improve
significantly the seasonal FFDI calculation. Only the bias-correction of maximum temperature
significantly improved the FFDI results. Thus, for this study we only show the bias-correction results for this variable.
Figure 3 shows
the probability density function PDFs of original and bias-corrected Tmax data. The application of additive linear scaling successfully centers the mean of the 20CR. Figure 4 presents original and bias-corrected results of the seasonal time series for Tmax. 20CR maximum temperature data now has a comparable magnitude with WS. The linear scaling did
not affect the correlation coefficients between the two types of data.
Figure 5 presents the results of the FFDI calculation with original and bias-corrected data. The results show PDFs of WS and bias-corrected 20CR data. The bias-correction increases the similarity between the distribution of data.
Figure 6 presents seasonal (JAS) time series of FFDI. The figure displays three time series. FFDI calculated with WS data comprises the period 1997-2012. Two more time series show FFDI calculated with reanalysis data. The calculation used original (20CR) and bias-corrected (20CR(bc)) reanalysis data. These time series span the period 1963-2012. The FFDI time series calculated with original reanalysis data over-estimates seasonal wildfire potential. The overestimation is on average of 65 units during the
period 1997-2012. These data
—WS and 20CR— has a moderate linear correlation (r=0.53,p=0.04). FFDI calculated with bias-corrected reanalysis data under-estimates the FFDI computed with observed values. The magnitude of the underestimation is less than the initial over-estimation (47 units). The bias-correction does not significantly affect the linear correlation
between WS and 20CR(bc) data (r=0.53,p=0.05). These results encouraged us to extend the FFDI calculation for the period 1963-2012.
Having an extended FFDI dataset allowed us to investigate the influence of ENSO over seasonal wildfire variability in Ecuador. Table 1 shows linear correlation's 'r' coefficients of seasonal ENSO metrics with FFDI. The table shows how the evolution of ENSO in previous —and the concurrent season— is associated with wildfire potential. Previous seasons start one year earlier on October-November-December (OND), and continue in three-months intervals including the wildfire season July-August-September (JAS). This correlations show that the influence of ENSO is associated to wildfire potential in the preceding (AMJ) and concurrent (JAS) season. ENSO does not
seen seem to have a direct relationship in further back in time. This is valid using the SOI and Niño
3.4. 3.4 indexes.
This investigation also explored the relationship between ENSO and extreme wildfire seasons. Our definition of extreme wildfire seasons filtered years with cumulative FFDI above the 85th percentile for the period 1963-212. The most extreme seasons during this period were 1982, 1991, 1997, 2009 and 2012. Each season was compared with historical categorizations of strength of ENSO events.
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