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\section{Estimating the Probability of a Ming Tombstone}  It is common practice in archeology to calculate conditional probabilities of invisible properties of an artifact or a site given the know frequency distributions of visible properties of the same artifact of site in relation to a larger sample of know cases. cases \cite{Barcelo09a}.  The conditional property (P) of being a Ming tombstone (M), given the tomb features A, B and C is written as P(M|ABC) and be estimated as in. \begin{equation}  P(M|ABC) = \frac{P(ABC|M) * P(M)}{P(ABC)}