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\section{Estimating the Probability of a Ming Tombstone}  It is common practice in archeology to calculate conditional probabilities of invisible properties of an artifact or a site given the know frequency distributions of visible properties of the same artifact of site in relation to a larger sample of know cases. The conditional property (P) of being a Ming tombstone (M), given the tomb features A, B and C is written as P(M|ABC). This can be calculated by P(MABC)/P(ABC), where P(MABC) is estimated by #MABC/Nmabc, where # refers to the cardinality of the joined occurrence of the features M, A, B and C and N refers to the number of tombstones which have defined values for all these features. Similar P(ABC) is estimated as #ABC/Nabc. Depending on the attributes we use to predict the age of the tombstone we obtain the following estimates: estimates for Taiwan, Penghu and Jinmen:  \begin{table}   \begin{tabular}{ c|c|c }  features & conditional probablity probability  & comments \\ P(M|R) & 0.003 & R=rectangular form \\   P(M|C) & 0.0007 & C=lunar calendar \\   P(M|F) & 0.77 & F=皇明 \\