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Would the occurrence of a Maunder-like solar minimum reverse the observed climate change?
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  • Marcio Cataldi,
  • Rafael Henrique Oliveira Rangel,
  • Vitor Luiz Victalino Galves,
  • Sonia Jerez,
  • Juan Pedro Montávez,
  • Amar Halifa-Marín,
  • Luiz Landau
Marcio Cataldi
Universidade Federal Fluminense

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Rafael Henrique Oliveira Rangel
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
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Vitor Luiz Victalino Galves
UFF
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Sonia Jerez
Unknown
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Juan Pedro Montávez
University of Murcia
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Amar Halifa-Marín
University of Murcia
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Luiz Landau
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
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Abstract

This study examines a scenario combining a prolonged solar minimum, like the historical Maunder Minimum, with the increased CO2 emissions characteristic of the post-industrial era. Two scenarios were developed in NCAR/CESM 2.0 implemented at LAMMOC/UFF to create simulations from 1850 to 2000, it contrasts differing radiative forcings from 1950 onward—one reflecting actual observed changes, including rising CO2 levels, and the other simulating a decrease in solar output like that during the Maunder Minimum but with continued CO2 growth. The results were validated against ERA5 data and 20th-century reanalysis. By calculating meridional averages at 30-degree latitude intervals, distinct regional impacts of the Maunder Minimum were identified. Notably the simulated Maunder Minimum reduced global warming by and even mitigated 70% in HS in the last decade of the 20th century. However, this attenuation was lower in the HN, especially in the 30-60N region where no attenuation was observed.
15 May 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
16 May 2024Published in ESS Open Archive