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Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble To Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties
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  • Kieran Murphy,
  • L. Denisse Fierro Arcos,
  • Tyler Weaver Rohr,
  • David Bruce Green,
  • Camilla Novaglio,
  • Katherine Baker,
  • Kelly Ortega-Cisneros,
  • Tyler Eddy,
  • Cheryl Shannon Harrison,
  • Simeon Hill,
  • Patrick Keith,
  • Camila Cataldo-Mendez,
  • Colleen M Petrik,
  • matt pinkerton,
  • Paul Spence,
  • Ilaria Stollberg,
  • Roshni Subramaniam,
  • Rowan Trebilco,
  • Vivitskaia Tulloch,
  • Juliano Palacios-Abrantes,
  • Sophie Bestley,
  • Daniele Bianchi,
  • Philip W Boyd,
  • Pearse James Buchanan,
  • Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz,
  • Marta Coll,
  • Stuart Paul Corney,
  • Samik Datta,
  • Jason D Everett,
  • Romain Forestier,
  • Beth Fulton,
  • Benjamin Keith Galton-Fenzi,
  • Vianney Guibourd de Luzinais,
  • Ryan Heneghan,
  • Julia G Mason,
  • Olivier Maury,
  • Clive R. McMahon,
  • Eugene J. Murphy,
  • Anthony Richardson,
  • Derek Tittensor,
  • Scott Spillias,
  • Jeroen Gerhard Steenbeek,
  • Devi Veytia,
  • Julia L. Blanchard
Kieran Murphy
Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, The University of Tasmania

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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L. Denisse Fierro Arcos
The University of Tasmania
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Tyler Weaver Rohr
University of Tasmania
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David Bruce Green
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies
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Camilla Novaglio
University of Tasmania
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Katherine Baker
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania
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Kelly Ortega-Cisneros
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
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Tyler Eddy
Memorial University
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Cheryl Shannon Harrison
Louisiana State University
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Simeon Hill
British Antarctic Survey
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Patrick Keith
School of Life Sciences, University of Essex
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Camila Cataldo-Mendez
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania
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Colleen M Petrik
UC San Diego
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matt pinkerton
NIWA
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Paul Spence
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania
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Ilaria Stollberg
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania
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Roshni Subramaniam
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
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Rowan Trebilco
Unknown
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Vivitskaia Tulloch
Basin-scale Events to Coastal Impacts (BECI), North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES)
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Juliano Palacios-Abrantes
Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia
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Sophie Bestley
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies
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Daniele Bianchi
University of California Los Angeles
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Philip W Boyd
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies
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Pearse James Buchanan
CSIRO
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Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz
Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries and Marine Institute, Memorial University of Newfoundland
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Marta Coll
Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
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Stuart Paul Corney
University of Tasmania
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Samik Datta
NIWA
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Jason D Everett
University of New South Wales
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Romain Forestier
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania
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Beth Fulton
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
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Benjamin Keith Galton-Fenzi
Australian Antarctic Division
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Vianney Guibourd de Luzinais
Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia
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Ryan Heneghan
School of Science and Environment
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Julia G Mason
Environmental Defense Fund
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Olivier Maury
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
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Clive R. McMahon
Sydney Institute of Marine Science
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Eugene J. Murphy
British Anarctic Survey
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Anthony Richardson
University of Queensland, Australia
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Derek Tittensor
Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
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Scott Spillias
CSIRO Environment
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Jeroen Gerhard Steenbeek
Ecopath International Initiative (EII)
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Devi Veytia
Centre for the Synthesis and Analysis of Biodiversity (CESAB)
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Julia L. Blanchard
University of Tasmania
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Abstract

Climate change could irreversibly modify Southern Ocean ecosystems. Marine ecosystem model (MEM) ensembles can assist policy making by projecting future changes and allowing the evaluation and assessment of alternative management approaches. However, projected future changes in total consumer biomass from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) global MEM ensemble highlight an uncertain future for the Southern Ocean, indicating the need for a region-specific ensemble. A large source of model uncertainty originates from the Earth system models (ESMs) used to force FishMIP models, particularly future changes to lower trophic level biomass and sea ice coverage. To build confidence in regional MEMs as ecosystem-based management tools in a changing climate that can better account for uncertainty, we propose the development of a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble (SOMEME) contributing to the FishMIP 2.0 regional model intercomparison initiative. One of the challenges hampering progress of regional MEM ensembles is achieving the balance of global standardised inputs with regional relevance. As a first step, we design a SOMEME simulation protocol, that builds on and extends the existing FishMIP framework, in stages that include: detailed skill assessment of climate forcing variables for Southern Ocean regions, extension of fishing forcing data to include whaling, and new simulations that assess ecological links to sea-ice processes in an ensemble of candidate regional MEMs. These extensions will help advance assessments of urgently needed climate change impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems.
15 May 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
15 May 2024Published in ESS Open Archive