Evolution of a Surge Cycle of the Bering-Bagley Glacier System from
Observations and Numerical Modeling
Abstract
The recent surge of the Bering-Bagley Glacier System (BBGS), Alaska, in
2008-2013 provided a rare opportunity to study surging in a large and
complex system. We simulate glacier evolution for a 20 year quiescent
phase, where geometrical and hydrological changes lead to conditions
favorable for surging, and the first two years of a surge phase where a
surge-front propagates through the system activating the surging ice.
For each phase, we analyze the simulated elevation-change and
ice-velocity pattern, and infer information on the evolving basal
drainage system through hydropotential analysis. During the quiescent
phase simulation, several reservoir areas form at locations consistent
with those observed. Up-glacier of these reservoir areas, water drainage
paths become increasingly lateral and hydropotential wells form
indicating an expanding storage capacity of subglacial water. These
results are attributed to local bedrock topography characterized by
large subglacial ridges that act to dam the down-glacier flow of ice and
water. Based on the BBGS’s end-of-quiescence state, we propose several
surge initiation criteria to predict when the system is set to surge. In
the surge simulation, we model surge evolution through Bering Glacier’s
trunk by implementing a new friction law that mimics a propagating
surge-wave. Modeled surge velocities share spatial patterns and reach
similar peaks as those observed in 2008-2010. As the surge progresses
through the glacier, drainage efficiency further degrades in the active
surging zone from its already inefficient, end-of-quiescence state.
Satellite observations from 2013 indicate hydraulic drainage efficiency
throughout the glacier was restored after the surge had ended.