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Updated assessment suggests >1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
  • +7
  • David Armstrong McKay,
  • Arie Staal,
  • Jesse F Abrams,
  • Ricarda Winkelmann,
  • Boris Sakschewski,
  • Sina Loriani,
  • Ingo Fetzer,
  • Sarah E Cornell,
  • Johan Rockström,
  • Timothy M Lenton
David Armstrong McKay
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Arie Staal
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University
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Jesse F Abrams
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter
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Ricarda Winkelmann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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Boris Sakschewski
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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Sina Loriani
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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Ingo Fetzer
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University
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Sarah E Cornell
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University
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Johan Rockström
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University
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Timothy M Lenton
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter
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Abstract

Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a forcing threshold, leading to abrupt and/or irreversible impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global ‘core’ tipping elements and regional ‘impact’ tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above pre-industrial already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several more tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5-2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2-3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.