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Uncertainty Quantification for Basin-Scale Conductive Models
  • Denise Degen,
  • Karen Veroy,
  • Florian Wellmann
Denise Degen
RWTH Aachen University, RWTH Aachen University

Corresponding Author:denise.degen@cgre.rwth-aachen.de

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Karen Veroy
Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven University of Technology
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Florian Wellmann
RWTH Aachen University, RWTH Aachen University
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Geophysical simulations are commonly used in many scientific studies. Especially in complex simulations, it is still common practice to provide a single deterministic outcome. Often, a probabilistic approach would be preferable, as a way to quantify and communicate uncertainties, but is infeasible due to long simulation times. We present here a method to generate full state predictions based on a reduced basis method that significantly reduces simulation time, thus enabling studies which require a large number of simulations, such as probabilistic simulations and inverse approaches. We implemented this approach in an existing simulation framework and showcase the application in a geothermal study, where we generate 2D and 3D predictive uncertainty maps. These maps allow a detailed model insight, identifying regions with both high temperatures and low uncertainties. Due to the flexible implementation, the methods are transferable to other geophysical simulations, where both the state and the uncertainty are important.
10 Mar 2022Published in Scientific Reports volume 12 issue 1. 10.1038/s41598-022-08017-2