Technique of near-field probabilistic tsunami zoning applied to the
Bechevinskaya Cove (the Kamchatka Peninsula)
Abstract
Currently, the most popular approach for assessing the tsunami hazard on
a coast is the PTHA (Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment). In this
study, we develop one of the variants of the SPTHA (Seismic PTHA)
method, adapted to solving near-field tsunami zoning problems. The
approach is applied to assessing the tsunami hazard of the Bechevinskaya
Cove located on the eastern coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula in the
northern part of Avachinsky Bay. We propose the method, algorithms and
results of probabilistic assessment of the cove’s tsunami hazard in
order to determine the safest water areas, in which the values of the
intensity measures (IMs) of tsunami will not exceed the specified
threshold values with the given recurrence rates. The method includes
analysis of seismotectonics of the region, construction of a catalog of
model tsunamigenic earthquakes, determination of their statistical
characteristics, scenario numerical modeling of the dynamics of tsunami
waves, calculations of the values of IMs that can be exceeded with the
given recurrence rates (on average 1 time in 100, 500, 1000 years).
Spatial distributions of the maximum wave heights and maximum velocities
are provided for the recurrence rates. Three configurations of the water
area are considered, including the possibility of constructing
protective structures, and conclusions are drawn about their influence
on the tsunami hazard assessments in the cove. 1. Introduction The
problem of tsunami zoning, which consists in the quantitative
classification of the coast and adjacent aquatory by the degree of
tsunami hazard, is one of the classic tsunami problems and requires the
use of multidisciplinary tools and methods for its solution (Gusiakov,
2017). Hereinafter, tsunami hazard is the degree (level) of exposure of
water areas and coasts to the tsunami threat in terms of measuring the
catastrophic wave intensity. One of the first approaches to solving the
problem of tsunami zoning was a method based on the use of historical
data, materials from modern instrumental observations, as well as
geological studies of paleo-tsunami along the coastal areas. The main
limitation of the “historical” approach is a short series of
observations. For near-field tsunami zoning problems the number of such
observations is usually objectively limited by the short historical
period of observations and the preservation of tsunami deposits, which
also limits the accuracy of statistical estimates of tsunami hazard.
Scenario modeling is an alternative based on estimates of the
statistical properties of tsunami sources and the results of simulation
(mathematical modeling) of the transformation of tsunami waves from the
source to the coast. This approach uses a series of model tsunamigenic
events of arbitrary length and thus clarifies probabilistic estimates of
tsunami hazard. One of the ways to use the results of scenario
calculations to solve the problem of tsunami zoning is to determine the
extreme (worst case)