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  • Logistic Regression


    Logistic regression is used for classification. The independent variable of the data is quantitative and the dependent variable of the data is binary (0 or 1) i.e. in a class or not. Instead of modeling the response (0 or 1), the logistic model’s dependent variable is the probability that a data point belongs in the class.

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    The logistic function is fit to the data. Regerring to the plot above, the model (blue curve) can take in the balance and output the probability of default. Notice that it does tell you if the person defaults or not; it tells you the probability of default. In order to perform classification, you must choose a cutoff, say 0.5, where all values above are predicted as default and all below are predicted as not default.

    Starting Out

    1. Introducion to Statistical Learning (James 2013) - section 4.3

    2. Advanced Data Analysis from an Elementary Point of View (Dobson 2001) - chapter 7

    3. An Introduction to Generalized Linear Models - chapter 7

    More Detail

    What function are we fitting?

    Where \(y\in\lbrace0,1\rbrace\), we are fitting the logistic function,

    \[{p(y=1;\beta)} = \frac{1}{1 + e^{-(\beta_0+\beta_1x)}}\]

    This is the probability that \(y=1\) parameterized by \(\beta_i\), also written as \(p(x)\) since the probability defends on \(x\). In order to fit this function to the data, we must find the parameters \(\beta_i\) that maximize the likelihood function, \(L(\beta;y)\). The likelihood function is algebraically the same as the joint probability density function \(f(y;\beta)\) except that the change in notation reflects a shift of emphasis from the random variables \(\textit{y}_i\), with parameters \(\beta\) fixed, to parameters \(\beta\) with \(\textit{y}_i\) fixed. The likelihood function is given by

    \[{L(\beta)} = \prod_{i=1}^np(x_i)^{y_i}(1-p(x_i))^{1-y_i}\]

    We could substitute the equation for p(x) from above but we will not here. The form of the likelihood function, which is the same as the distribution of the response, reflects the fact that we assume the response follows a binomial distribution. Finding the parameters \(\beta_i\) that maximizes the likelihood function involves numerical analysis that are outside the scope of this paper and are not a concern for a modeler.

    Making Predictions

    As stated in the overview, logistic regression gives a model whose output is the probability of y=1. To actually predict if the instance is in the class or not, the