Discussion and Conclusions
Hope Properties are a peculiar case compared to the percentage of flooded buildings in East and Central Harlem under current and future floodplain, they are also more represented within hot spots of socioecononic vulnerability.
This study opens up a series of relevant and timely questions about the future of private corporation owned affordable housing in NYC. CDCs owned properties are important for the city because lower-income people traditionally serviced by NYCHA or shelter housing are now both overcrowded. Also, as indicated New York city housing has been shifting in favor or more middle and high priced rentals, in a glaring erosion to the inventory of rent regulated housing.
Through this analysis we show that CDC owned housing may be affected by not only increasing rates of coastal flooding now and into 2080 but also by the compounded effect of changes in urban zoning and rent subsidy expiration, which can both affect the present and future viability of the CDCs’ model. A loss of affordability in the private market is a loss of affordability for all.
The hot spots indicate the areas that, in the near future, may return a loss of affordable housing due to the multiple factors here studied. Cold spots, on the other hand, may be considered for expansion of CDC owned properties. Although rezoning is complex and may also bring positive effects, this study points to the need for rezoning plans that are more sensitive to affordability needs and climate resiliency needs across East Harlem.
Data Sources
Hope and Ascendant Properties (Hope and Ascendant, 2018)
Northern Manhattan Collaborative Properties (NMC, 2019)
Tax lot and Community Districts shapefiles (MapPluto, 2018)
2015 100 Year floodplain (‘current’) (FEMA, 2013)
2020 100 Year floodplain (10’’ SLR) (NPCC, 2014)
2050 100 Year floodplain (30’’ SLR)(NPCC, 2014)
2080 100 Year floodplain (58’’ SLR) (NPCC, 2014)
New York City Digital Elevation Model (1 foot) integer raster (NYC OpenData, 2018)
2017 East Harlem Rezoning (NYC Department of City Planning)