Introduction

\label{introduction}Scientific evidence shows that climate change during the post-industrialized era has been occurring much more rapidly than that during previous historical phases (IPCC, 2001). Foremost cause of climate change is the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the earth’s atmosphere leading to a rise in global temperatures. This in turn poses potential threats to food, water, health, and land, and may lead to an increase in the incidents of extreme weather events (Stern, 2006).
In response to climate change, both mitigation and adaptation actions are necessary. Reducing the contribution of cities to climate change, or mitigation, requires an adequate understanding of the drivers of urban greenhouse gas emissions, while effective adaptation must be based on a good understanding of what makes cities either vulnerable or resilient to climate change impacts (UN-Habitat, 2011). However, since mitigation efforts at all levels have so far not been able to move the global climate system away from its current trajectory, adaption actions are increasingly being considered as crucial to address both current and future climate risks in urban areas. Adaptation to climate change can be defined as all actions that reduce the vulnerability of a system (e.g. a city), population group, or household to the adverse impacts of anticipated climate change. As stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (2007), ‘adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions.’ Adaptation is therefore not a substitute for but a complement to mitigation.
Against this background, the chapter explores that challenges that characterize the evaluation of climate change adaptation projects. The evaluation of projects constitutes a fundamental element of the adaptation process as it allows decision makers to assess the extent to which a specific intervention contributes to reducing vulnerability and building resilience. Furthermore, in light of the high complexity and uncertainty as well as the long-term nature of climate change dynamics, adaptation measures should be designed as a flexible process characterized by feedback loops and ongoing learning. The implementation of adaptation initiatives need therefore to be regularly evaluated. At the same time, the evaluation of adaption projects presents significant challenges. These are related to the particular nature and characteristics of the vast majority of adaption projects which imply a number of methodological issues such as the existence of long-term time scales and infrequent events, the high level of uncertainty and shifting baselines, the presence of co-benefits, and the absence of agreed metrics. After having analysed these methodological challenges in detail, the chapter outlines an integrated framework for the evaluation of climate change adaptation projects, based on four of four interrelated components specifically developed to take into account the peculiarities of climate change adaptation projects: evaluation criteria, theory of change, project indicators, and logical framework. The chapter concludes with the application of the integrated evaluation framework to concrete adaption projects implemented by the United Nations Capital Development Fund (UNCDF) through its Local Climate Adaptive Living Facility (LoCAL).