Flexibility
Flexibility accounts for the uncertainty of climate change and the
evolving knowledge base and it assess whether a specific adaptation
intervention has the necessary robustness to deal with the complex and
variable environment within which it is implemented and with a variety
of possible futures. When evaluating the flexibility of an adaptation
project, it is useful to consider the following questions:
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Can the scope, size and timing of the adaptation project be modified
due to changed circumstances?
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Do the additional costs involved with changing the scope, size and
timing affect the financial viability of the adaptation project?
4.2. Theory of change
\label{theory-of-change}
A theory of change is a planning tool that defines all the building
blocks required to bring about a given goal. Underlying the design of a
specific development intervention is an explicit or implicit theory of
change with social, behavioural, and institutional assumptions
indicating why a particular policy will work to address a given
development challenge (NONIE 2009). A similar rationale applies to
adaptation projects. Any theory of change requires certain assumptions
to be made about how inputs are related to activities that will result
in the desired outputs, outcomes and impacts. The evaluation must
explore and challenge these assumptions. This is particularly true in
the case of climate adaptation where there can be considerable
uncertainty (UKCIP 2011). The theory of change approach in relation to
adaptation projects is concerned with opening up the black box of
implementation and focuses on the appropriateness of the logic behind
the intervention. This includes the assumptions made about the
underlying rationales and those that define the relationships or chain
of results that link inputs to activities to outputs, outcomes and
impacts, and on the factors and risks inherent in the adaptation project
design that may influence whether the initiative succeeds or fails. The
adaptation theory of change also considers social, political, economic,
demographic and institutional factors, both internal and external, that
have an influence on how and why the initiative produces certain
results. The articulation of the adaptation theory of change can use one
or more sources of evidence, ranging from the intervention’s existing
logical framework, to insights and expectations of relevant
stakeholders, to theoretical and empirical research on processes of
change and past experiences of similar interventions. A theory of change
is made of specific building blocks which can be structured through the
use of a logical framework for adaptation.
Adapted from the developmental literature, the logical framework for
adaptation is a key analytical tool for the evaluation of adaptation
projects. It graphically conceptualises the hypothesised
cause-and-effect relationships expressed in the theory of change and
hence how project resources and activities will contribute to the
achievement of objectives and results. The underlying logic is that
inputs are used to undertake project activities that entail the delivery
of outputs (goods and services). Outputs lead to the achievement of the
project outcomes (e.g. first level or primary outcomes, second level or
secondary outcomes, etc.), which in turn contribute to the project
impacts (DFID 2011). Based on the logical framework for adaptation it is
possible to configure indicators, baselines, milestones, targets,
identify data sources and techniques, and assess assumptions and risks
for evaluating implementation and results around this structure (AFB
2011).
4.3. Logical framework
\label{logical-framework}
Within the context of adaption initiatives, the logical framework can be
structured as follows (AFB 2009, 2011):