Introduction
\label{introduction}Scientific evidence shows that climate change during the
post-industrialized era has been occurring much more rapidly than that
during previous historical phases (IPCC, 2001). Foremost cause of
climate change is the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases
(GHGs) in the earth’s atmosphere leading to a rise in global
temperatures. This in turn poses potential threats to food, water,
health, and land, and may lead to an increase in the incidents of
extreme weather events (Stern, 2006).
In response to climate change, both mitigation and adaptation actions
are necessary. Reducing the contribution of cities to climate change, or
mitigation, requires an adequate understanding of the drivers of urban
greenhouse gas emissions, while effective adaptation must be based on a
good understanding of what makes cities either vulnerable or resilient
to climate change impacts (UN-Habitat, 2011). However, since mitigation
efforts at all levels have so far not been able to move the global
climate system away from its current trajectory, adaption actions are
increasingly being considered as crucial to address both current and
future climate risks in urban areas. Adaptation to climate change can be
defined as all actions that reduce the vulnerability of a system (e.g. a
city), population group, or household to the adverse impacts of
anticipated climate change. As stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (2007), ‘adaptation will be
necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already
unavoidable due to past emissions.’ Adaptation is therefore not a
substitute for but a complement to mitigation.
Against this background, the chapter explores that challenges that
characterize the evaluation of climate change adaptation projects. The
evaluation of projects constitutes a fundamental element of the
adaptation process as it allows decision makers to assess the extent to
which a specific intervention contributes to reducing vulnerability and
building resilience. Furthermore, in light of the high complexity and
uncertainty as well as the long-term nature of climate change dynamics,
adaptation measures should be designed as a flexible process
characterized by feedback loops and ongoing learning. The implementation
of adaptation initiatives need therefore to be regularly evaluated. At
the same time, the evaluation of adaption projects presents significant
challenges. These are related to the particular nature and
characteristics of the vast majority of adaption projects which imply a
number of methodological issues such as the existence of long-term time
scales and infrequent events, the high level of uncertainty and shifting
baselines, the presence of co-benefits, and the absence of agreed
metrics. After having analysed these methodological challenges in
detail, the chapter outlines an integrated framework for the evaluation
of climate change adaptation projects, based on four of four
interrelated components specifically developed to take into account the
peculiarities of climate change adaptation projects: evaluation
criteria, theory of change, project indicators, and logical framework.
The chapter concludes with the application of the integrated evaluation
framework to concrete adaption projects implemented by the United
Nations Capital Development Fund (UNCDF) through its Local Climate
Adaptive Living Facility (LoCAL).