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\begin{document}

\title{Climate change and C\textsubscript{4} and C\textsubscript{3} grasses in
a midlatitude dryland steppe}



\author[1]{Robert Anderson}%
\author[1]{Trace Martyn}%
\author[1]{Rachel Renne}%
\author[1]{Ingrid Burke}%
\author[1]{William Lauenroth}%
\affil[1]{Yale University School of the Environment}%


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  \date{June 17, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Climate change is projected to alter the structure of plant communities
due to increasing temperatures and changes to precipitation patterns,
particularly in midlatitude dryland ecosystems. Modifications to
climatic suitability may lead to major community changes such as altered
dominant plant functional types. Previous studies have indicated that
climatic suitability is likely to increase for C4 grasses and decrease
for C3 grasses in the western United States. However, if no C4 grass
species currently exist to serve as a propagule source, expansion into
areas of increased suitability will be limited. We conducted a field and
modeling study in the Upper Green River Basin (UGRB) of western Wyoming
to determine if 1) C4 grasses are present to provide a propagule source
and 2) C4 grasses are likely to increase in importance relative to C3
grasses due to climatic changes. We searched 44 sites for C4 grasses to
establish presence, and modeled suitability at 35 sites using 17 Global
Climate Models, two greenhouse gas Representative Concentration Pathways
(RCPs; 4.5 and 8.5), and two time-periods (mid- and late-century;
2030-2060 and 2070-2099, respectively). We found C4 grasses at 10 of the
44 sites, indicating that there is a present propagule source. Our model
projected increases in suitability for both C3 and C4 grasses across
sites for all RCPs and time-periods. In the mid-century RCP 4.5
scenario, the C3 functional type increased in projected biomass in 29 of
35 sites, and the C4 type increased in 31 sites. In this scenario, C3
grasses increased in projected biomass by a median 4 gm-2 (5\% change),
and C4 grass biomass increased by a median 8 gm-2 (21\% change). Our
study suggests that climate change will increase climatic suitability
for grasses across the UGRB, and that all requirements are in place for
C4 grasses to increase in abundance.%
\end{abstract}%



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