5.1. Conclusion
Pakistan’s ability to produce wheat is seriously threatened by climate change. The repercussions of climate change are already being felt throughout the nation, including more extreme weather events, altered precipitation patterns, and rising temperatures. Future predictions indicate that these effects will worsen and could result in major drops in wheat output. The government of Pakistan has made some efforts to address how climate change is affecting wheat production. These actions include funding research and development of crop types that are climate resilient, encouraging water-saving techniques, and assisting farmers in implementing climate-smart agricultural techniques. To support farmers’ adaptation to climate change and safeguard wheat output, additional work must be done.
In this study, the effect of climate change on wheat production in Pakistan is assessed using the vector auto-regression (VAR) model. Data from the previous 50 years was used in the study. According to the conclusions drawn from the analysis of historical data, there hasn’t been a significant negative impact of climate change on Pakistan’s wheat production to date. The amount of land devoted to wheat farming and the effects of climate change, for example, will have a significant impact on the future production of wheat.
According to the study on variance decomposition, the area of wheat cultivation and climatic change are responsible for 30% and 34% of the variation in wheat production, respectively. As a result, in the context of climate change, the availability of water and temperature play a critical role in deciding the future of wheat production. These elements have a direct impact on the development and growth of wheat harvests because they affect irrigation techniques and the length of the growing season, respectively, and water availability impacts both of these parameters. Furthermore, alterations in precipitation patterns and harsh weather might make the effects of climate change on wheat output even worse.
Wheat is the primary staple grain cultivated in Pakistan. The nascent peril of climate change has the potential to impact the magnitude of wheat output in Pakistan. As a nation with a strong agricultural sector, it is imperative that we enhance our capacity to meet local consumption demands by expanding wheat output. The resulting excess may then be sold to international markets, therefore generating foreign cash. To effectively address the various developing hazards associated with climate change, the agricultural sector in Pakistan must implement appropriate adaptation techniques. These techniques may include the use of drought-resistant wheat varieties, improved irrigation systems, and better soil management practices. Additionally, funding R&D for climate-smart agriculture can aid in the creation of creative solutions to lessen the adverse effects of climate change on Pakistan’s wheat production.