4. Discussion
The results obtained through the utilization of the VAR technique, which aims to forecast wheat yield in the year 2030, reveal a projected output of 24197.09 thousand tons. In contrast, the official government report from the Economic Survey (2022) documents the actual wheat production in 2030 as 23864 thousand tons. This indicates a relatively close correspondence between the projected and actual values. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that the VAR technique relies on a multitude of factors, including historical data and assumptions. Consequently, it is expected that there may be some deviation between the projected and actual values. These quantitative findings align with existing literature on the subject, which emphasizes the vulnerability of wheat production to climate change (IPCC, 2014; Lobell et al., 2014).
Moreover, the observed and projected consequences of climate change on wheat production in Pakistan underscore the necessity for the implementation of adaptation strategies. Experts recommend various measures, including the development of heat-resistant crop varieties, the formulation of climate change adaptation policies, the promotion of sustainable agricultural practices, and the enhancement of water management. These strategies are consistent with global endeavors to bolster climate resilience in the agricultural sector (FAO, 2017; Lipp et al., 2014). The severity of the situation is further emphasized by the potential yield losses attributed to climate change, as reported in a study conducted in Pakistan. The anticipated decrease in wheat output, particularly in rain-fed conditions, highlights the urgency for the implementation of effective adaptation measures. These findings align with similar conclusions drawn from studies investigating the impacts of climate change on crop yields (Asseng et al., 2015; Lobell and Field, 2007).