4. Discussion
The results obtained through the utilization of the VAR technique, which
aims to forecast wheat yield in the year 2030, reveal a projected output
of 24197.09 thousand tons. In contrast, the official government report
from the Economic Survey (2022) documents the actual wheat production in
2030 as 23864 thousand tons. This indicates a relatively close
correspondence between the projected and actual values. However, it is
crucial to acknowledge that the VAR technique relies on a multitude of
factors, including historical data and assumptions. Consequently, it is
expected that there may be some deviation between the projected and
actual values. These quantitative findings align with existing
literature on the subject, which emphasizes the vulnerability of wheat
production to climate change (IPCC, 2014; Lobell et al., 2014).
Moreover, the observed and projected consequences of climate change on
wheat production in Pakistan underscore the necessity for the
implementation of adaptation strategies. Experts recommend various
measures, including the development of heat-resistant crop varieties,
the formulation of climate change adaptation policies, the promotion of
sustainable agricultural practices, and the enhancement of water
management. These strategies are consistent with global endeavors to
bolster climate resilience in the agricultural sector (FAO, 2017; Lipp
et al., 2014). The severity of the situation is further emphasized by
the potential yield losses attributed to climate change, as reported in
a study conducted in Pakistan. The anticipated decrease in wheat output,
particularly in rain-fed conditions, highlights the urgency for the
implementation of effective adaptation measures. These findings align
with similar conclusions drawn from studies investigating the impacts of
climate change on crop yields (Asseng et al., 2015; Lobell and Field,
2007).