Abstract
This study examined the effects of climate change on wheat production in
Pakistan, documenting yearly changes in the atmosphere such as floods,
rainfall, and increasing temperatures. Using a combination of
qualitative and quantitative methods, the objective is to analyze how
various factors, including water availability, the area of wheat
cultivation, carbon dioxide levels, precipitation, and temperature,
impact the wheat output in Pakistan. A comprehensive review of existing
literature provides context, while the VAR modeling technique is
utilized for quantitative data analysis, incorporating data from the
Economic Survey of Pakistan and the Meteorological Department. The VAR
model indicates a significant negative impact on Pakistan’s wheat
production as a result of climate change. The study highlights the
urgent need to implement adaptation strategies to mitigate these
effects. The projected decline in wheat production has significant
implications for food security and livelihoods, necessitating policy
interventions and the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices.
The societal impact of these findings calls for collaborative efforts
among stakeholders, policymakers, and the general public to collectively
address the challenges posed by climate change in Pakistan’s
agricultural sector.
Key words - climate change, wheat production, Pakistan, global
warming, adaptation strategies, VAR modeling, sustainable agriculture,
food security.
Introduction
Wheat is one of several species of edible
cereal grasses of
the genus Triticum (family Poaceae).
Wheat is one of the oldest and most important of the cereal crops. Of
the thousands of varieties known, the most important is common wheat
(Triticum aestivum ). The rapid expansion has necessitated the
usage of fossil fuels to supply the increased demand for energy (Kukal
& Irmak, 2018). However, burning fossil fuels results in the emission
of gases that have a long-term impact on the planet’s climate. There is
little doubt that several billion people rely on wheat as a significant
portion of their diet on a global scale. Since bread, noodles, and other
products (such as bulgar, and couscous) may make up a sizable component
of the diet in less developed nations, the nutritional significance of
wheat proteins should not be understated. Nearly 55% of the food’s
carbs and 20% of its calories come from wheat. It has a sizable amount
of carbs (78.10%), protein (14.70% of the total), fat (2.10%), and
minerals (2.10%), as well as vitamins (thiamine and vitamin B),
minerals (zinc), and fat. The majority of the protein, carbohydrates,
iron, and numerous B-complex vitamins like riboflavin, niacin, and
thiamine are found in the endosperm of each kernel. Approximately 1 gram
of fiber per tablespoon can be found in wheat germ. For people who are
at risk for celiac diseases, cardiovascular disease, or diabetes, a high
fibrous diet is suggested for bowel regulation (i.e., reduce
constipation) (Kumar et al., 2011).
Wheat is Pakistan’s most significant food crop in terms of production
and acreage. Wheat accounts for 37.1% of the agricultural land, 65% of
the land used for food grains, and 70% of the total agricultural
output. For irrigation-based wheat farming, an average acre needs 20 to
21 inches of water. Due to its ideal geography, rich soil, and superior
agricultural infrastructure, the Indus Plains have a significantly
bigger area devoted to growing wheat. Spring wheat is raised as a Rabi
crop in the Pakistani provinces of Sindh, Punjab, NWFP, and Baluchistan.
Winter wheat is raised on a small scale in Baluchistan’s northern
regions. 8.371 million hectares were used for cultivating wheat, and
18.90 million tons were produced between 1997 and 1980. Punjab (71.17%)
and Sindh (13.38%) are the two provinces with the largest production
areas. Punjab has a slightly higher yield per acre (2,316 kg) than Sindh
(2,410 kg). In Punjab, irrigated land is primarily used to raise wheat.
About 10% of wheat is produced in places that receive rain (Ahmed&
Schmitz, 2011).
Pakistan’s major producer of wheat is Punjab, which accounts for around
71.17% of the nation’s total output. Punjab produced 19178.50 thousand
tons of wheat in 2021–2022 alone. Approximately 13.38% of Pakistan’s
total wheat production is produced in Sindh, the country’s
second-largest producer. In Sindh, 3639,50 tons of wheat was produced in
2021–2022 alone. Approximately 8.22% of Pakistan’s total wheat
production is produced in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, making it the
third-largest producer in the country. In 2021–2022, 2207, 60,000 tons
of wheat were produced in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Approximately 3.23% of
all wheat produced in Pakistan is produced in Baluchistan, the country’s
fourth-largest wheat producer. 865.30 thousand tons of wheat were
produced in Baluchistan in 2021–22. Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Kashmir
contributed the remaining 3.98% of Pakistan’s total wheat production
(Ahmad & Jabeen, 2023).
Climate change has emerged as a significant concern for wheat production
in Pakistan. Understanding the possible effects of climate change on
wheat production is essential because wheat is the nation’s main source
of food (Chandio et al., 2020). A wheat plant’s stem normally stands two
to four feet tall, and its grass-like leaves measure eight to fifteen
inches in length. Each stalk ends in a spike that is anywhere from 2 to
8 inches long. It’s the most productive section of the wheat plant, with
an average of 20 grains per spike and up to 300 in extreme cases caused
by extreme weather (Brown & Huntington, 2003). Wheat is often planted
in Pakistan in the fall, namely in the month of November. Wheat is grown
on an estimated 90,450,000 ha in Pakistan, with a yield of 2,657 kg per
hectare. In Pakistan, wheat is so vital to the country’s diet that the
average person consumes 120 kilograms of it per year. With only 26 MAF
(million-acre feet) available, Pakistan’s wheat farmers only have access
to 78.4 percent of the water they need to grow their crops (Rosegrant et
al., 2008). Pakistan’s environment generally supports the growth of
wheat, with a chilly growing season and a warm ripening season. However,
the nation is also vulnerable to droughts and floods, which can harm
wheat yields.
Additionally, Pakistan’s wheat harvest is in danger due to the frequency
and severity of extreme weather events. Wheat grows best in environments
between 18 and 24 °C. Wheat yield can be negatively impacted by
temperatures above 30°C. Due to its sensitivity to dryness, wheat needs
an average of 500–600 mm of water per season. However excessive rain
can also cause crops to lodge, lowering the output. For healthy growth
and development, wheat needs a minimum of 12 hours of sunlight per day.
Loamy, well-drained soils with a pH of 6.5–7.5 are ideal for growing
wheat. The production of wheat in Pakistan is being threatened by the
growing frequency and severity of extreme weather events like floods and
droughts. These occurrences may cause wheat crops to fail and sustain
damage. The average temperature in Pakistan is also rising as a result
of climate change. Wheat yield could decrease as a result of this
temperature rise (Elahi et al, 2022).
Yadvinder‐Singh et al. (2021) documented that certified wheat varieties
are essential to the wheat productivity as they go through rigorous
testing and review procedures during development to make sure they meet
quality requirements for things like purity, germination rate, and
disease resistance. They are more likely to produce high yields of grain
that is of high quality as a result. The goal of certified varieties is
frequently to outperform conventional kinds in terms of productivity.
This is due to the features that have been chosen for them, including a
robust root system, resilience to pests and diseases, and the capacity
to survive drought and heat stress, all of which are associated with
large yields. In order to improve quality attributes like good baking or
milling quality, certified cultivars are frequently bred. For farmers
wishing to grow high quality wheat used to manufacture pasta, bread, and
other foods, this is crucial. These cultivars are resistant to pests
aiding farmers looking to limit the usage of pesticides for protecting
their crops from disease and pests. Certified cultivars highly adapt to
particular soil and climate conditions. Overall, through enhancing
yields, quality, and disease resistance, certified wheat cultivars are
essential to the production of wheat.
Studies have shown that rising temperatures and changing water
availability are key factors affecting wheat production and been a major
concern for farmers and agronomists. Research conducted in Pakistan has
highlighted a decline in crop production, including wheat, rice, corn,
and barley, attributed to climate change (Abbas, 2021). The long-term
effects of climatic factors on wheat production in different regions of
the country have also been explored, revealing both negative and
positive influences (Janjua et al., 2010). Studies have shown a decline
in crop production, including wheat, rice, corn, and barley, which can
be attributed to climate change. The long-term effects of climatic
factors on wheat production in different regions of the country have
been explored, revealing both negative and positive influences (Asseng
et al., 2015). For instance, while a rise in mean temperature in January
and February enhances wheat productivity by 6.2 percent, overall, the
impact of climate change on wheat production in Pakistan is
predominantly negative.
Many developing nations are particularly sensitive to climate change
because of their geographical locations, making it an externality
primarily driven by certain economic activity. Without action to reduce
GHG emissions, the IPCC projects that greenhouse gas concentrations will
rise from their present level of 550 parts per million to 700 parts per
million by the middle of this century, leading to a three-degree
Fahrenheit increase in global average temperature since the
preindustrial period (Rosegrant et al., 2008). Anthropogenic CO2
increases the concentration of greenhouse gases, which in turn increases
the Earth’s average temperature. More frequent floods and droughts, food
shortages, unfavorable weather conditions, the emergence of new
illnesses, a rise in sea levels, and so on are all potential results of
global warming. Anthropogenic activities, deforestation, and other
factors all contribute to the rising atmospheric concentration of these
GHGs. This concentration is projected to be three times higher by 2100
compared to pre-industrial times, leading to a 3-10 0C
increase in temperature (Brown & Huntington, 2003). When it comes to
the effects of global warming, agriculture is on the front lines.
Changes in precipitation patterns, temperature increases, planting and
harvesting windows, water availability, evapotranspiration, and land
suitability are some of the ways in which climate change is impacting
agricultural output and yield (Harry et al., 1993).
Although carbon dioxide (CO2) is seen as the main culprit in global
warming, it has a beneficial effect on plants (Warrick 1988). In
addition to improving air quality, carbon dioxide (CO2) also has two
vital effects on plant life such as photosynthesis and reduce
photorespiration, this impact is particularly pronounced in C3 plants
(Mendelsohn et al., 1994). Higher temperatures accelerate the
evapotranspiration process, creating a moisture stress, catastrophic for
wheat productivity, according to the Warrick (1988). Furthermore, it
shortens the period of canopy formation during wheat crop development,
which, leads to the yield losses. The process of vernalization and
kernel development is affected due to reduced time since wheat output
increases in wetter conditions, but productivity drops under dry ones.
The two most fundamental aspects of climate change, temperature, and
rainfall, are considered for this study. Due to a lack of comprehensive
humidity data over time in Pakistan, this analysis ignores the effect of
humidity on wheat yield. This study specifically analyzed the negative
role of global warming impacting the wheat production of Pakistan. In
particular, how far wheat harvest of Pakistan been impacted by changes
in precipitation and temperature and in what ways might future climate
change induced changes in the rate of precipitation and temperature have
on the volume of wheat produced in Pakistan? The study’s specific goal
is to examine the influences of temperature, precipitation, carbon
dioxide, wheat farming lands, and water, on Pakistan’s wheat production.
Understanding the mechanisms by which climate change affects wheat
production, such as through variations in temperature, precipitation,
and extreme weather events remains essential due to rising global
warming. Projecting how various scenarios of climate change are expected
to affect wheat output entails utilizing climate models leads to the
development of stress tolerant wheat, enhancing irrigation systems, and
implementing other farming methods that can lessen the effects of
climate change. Assessing the effects of climate change on wheat output
in Pakistan is complex, however it is crucial to comprehend the nation’s
future food security, ensuring sustainable wheat production by
understanding the risks and possibilities to enhance sustainability.
For billions of people around the world, wheat is a basic diet. It is a
good source of fiber, protein, and carbs. A good source of thiamin,
niacin, and magnesium, among other vitamins and minerals, is wheat. One
of the oldest crops grown in the world is wheat. Around 10,000 years
ago, a region of the Middle East called the Fertile Crescent was where
it was originally domesticated (De Sousa et al., 2021). From there, it
expanded to other continents like Asia, Europe, and Africa. Following
rice and maize as the world’s two most significant cereal crops, wheat
is currently in third place. Einkorn wheat is a diploid variety, evolved
into more intricate wheat varieties as a result of hybridization with
different wild grasses over time. Hexaploidy wheat, possessing six sets
of chromosomes, is currently the most widespread variety. Triticum
dicoccum , also known as Emmer wheat, is a tetraploid closely resembles
einkorn wheat variety, contains more gluten than the latter.Triticum durum (a.k.a durum wheat) is a hexaploidy wheat with a
high gluten content. Semolina, couscous, and pasta are all made with
this variety. The most popular variety of wheat, known as common wheat
(Triticum aestivum ), and it is farmed all throughout the world.
Cakes, spaghetti, bread, and other baked items are all made using common
wheat. (De Sousa et al., 2021).
Pakistan produced a record 27.4 million tons of wheat in 2022–2023, up
from 26.4 million tons the year before. This was caused by a variety of
elements, including excellent weather, increasing fertilizer use, and
improved agricultural techniques. Pakistan nevertheless continues to
import a sizable quantity of wheat to satisfy domestic demand. Pakistan
purchased 2.7 million tons of wheat, totaling nearly US$1 billion, in
the fiscal year 2022–2023. Pakistan’s wheat production is expected to
increase in 2023–2024. Pakistan is expected to produce 28 million tons
of wheat and import 2 million tons, according to the USDA Foreign
Agricultural Service. Pakistan’s wheat situation is getting better.
Wheat exports are rising while imports are falling (Ahmad & Jabeen,
2023).
There is still room for development, though. In the upcoming years, it
is anticipated that the government’s efforts to boost wheat output and
decrease imports will be successful. (Warrick (1988) analyzed how C3
crop, particularly wheat, would enhance their water usage efficiency by
transpiring less at increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. (Afzal & Ahmad,
2004) revealed that under stress conditions, with a CO2 concentration of
680 ppm, wheat output in mid- and high-latitude Europe and America would
rise by 10% to 50%. While a rise of 2 degrees Celsius in temperature
will reduce output by 3%-17%, this may be mitigated by increased
precipitation. The study determined that a movement of several hundred
kilometers toward mid- and high-latitudes would occur for every degree
Celsius rise in temperature.
Global food security is seriously threatened by climate change, and the
wheat crop is especially susceptible to its effects. Wheat cultivars
that can withstand heat, drought, and other climatic conditions are
being created and released. Even in the face of shifting weather
patterns, these types can assist farmers in maintaining yields. In order
to gather information on soil conditions, crop health, and other
parameters, precision agriculture makes use of a range of technologies,
including satellite imaging, drones, and sensors. Making informed
decisions about crop management, such as when to irrigate, apply
fertilizer, or control pests, is possible with the use of this data.
Water is a valuable resource, and it is growing harder and harder to
find in many places of the world. Farmers may preserve water and
increase agricultural yields by using technologies like drip irrigation
and rainwater gathering. Crop rotation, biological pest control, and
chemical pesticides are only a few of the approaches used in integrated
pest management (IPM), a comprehensive approach to pest management. IPM
can lessen the need for pesticides while also preserving the
environment. Data and technology are used in digital agriculture to
enhance agricultural methods. This can involve the use of sensors to
check soil moisture, drones to assess crops, and block chain to track
the transportation of food. These technologies must be created and
utilized in order to sustain food security in the face of climate change
(Pertot et al., 2017).
Numerous studies have shown a decline in the production of major crops,
including wheat, rice, corn, and barley, due to climate change. In-depth
research and analysis have been done on how climate change may affect
Pakistan’s ability to produce wheat by Hussain et al (2007). The
long-term effects of climatic factors on wheat production in different
regions of Pakistan have been explored, revealing both negative and
positive influences. While the negative impacts dominate, there are
slight increases in wheat productivity during certain months due to
higher temperatures. Overall, climate change poses significant
challenges to wheat production in Pakistan, necessitating adaptation and
mitigation strategies to ensure food security in the face of a changing
climate (Hussain et al., 2007).
Swat and Chitral, two places in Pakistan, are respectively 960m and
1500m above sea level, were studied by (Hussain &Mudassar, 2006) to
determine the influence of climate change on wheat output. They looked
at whether or not a 3 0C temperature increase would
shorten the wheat growth season (GSL) in this county and reduce wheat
output. Their findings indicated that the increased altitude of the
Chitral area would mitigate the detrimental effects of a rise in
temperature, whereas the low altitude of the Swat district would amplify
them. Chitral would benefit from a temperature increase of up to 1.50 C leading to a 14 percent increase in yield, whereas
Swat’s production would decrease by 7 percent. Wheat yield in Swat would
drop by 24% with a temperature increase of up to 30C, whereas production in the Chitral district would rise by 23%.
Because of the predicted rise in temperature, they proposed techniques
for adapting to it in order to grow high-yielding cultivars in the
warmer portions of the northern region of Pakistan.
(Boogard et al., 2013) reported that higher temperatures will boost crop
yields for corn, sorghum, sunflower, and soybeans but have a detrimental
effect on wheat and sugarcane. They reasoned that because of the high
temperatures currently experienced in this region, any future warming
caused by climate change would have a disturbing effect on wheat yields.
To prevent potential yield loss brought on by higher temperatures,
farmers advocated switching from wheat to heat-adapted crops like maize
and sorghum.
Five wheat models tailored to European settings were evaluated by (Anwar
et al, 2007). They decided that the models all agreed on the outcomes.
Their findings suggested that rising temperatures would reduce wheat
yields in Europe, whereas more precipitation and CO2fertilization would boost output. For the period 2000-2007s, (Anwar et
al. 2007) employed the South East Australian site of the Australian
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization’s (CSIRO)
global atmospheric model under three climate change scenarios: low,
medium, and high. The average wheat yield was shown to have decreased by
around 29 percent across all three scenarios; however, because of
CO2’s beneficial effect, this decrease was just 25
percent. Carbon dioxide fertilization can compensate for a slight
decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature. The results of
the study revealed that with improved agronomic practices and wheat
varieties, crop productivity might be increased.
The Central South area of Brazil was simulated to study the effect of
wheat due to climate change till the year 2050 by (Tornquist et al.,
2007). They found that a one million metric ton loss in wheat production
would occur if temperatures rose by 3 to 5 degrees Celsius and
precipitation represented by 11 percent. They determined that the
temperature at which wheat was being grown in Brazil was over the
critical level and futhur increases in temperature would lead to a drop
in agricultural productivity overall and in wheat in particular. They
also determined that most tropical nations that depend on agriculture
will see production reductions.
Using a Comparable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, (Zhai et al., 2009)
analyzed how climate change might affect China’s agricultural industry
by the year 2080. According to their findings, the agriculture sector’s
contribution to GDP fell by 1.3%. CGE simulation results showed a delay
in agricultural output leads to output losses by the year 2080, with the
exception of wheat due to a rise in global wheat demand and enhanced
productivity. The modeling findings also suggested that agricultural
productivity in China will fall less than the global average by the year
2080.
In order to learn more about how climate change may affect Southeast
Asia’s economy, (Zhai & Zhuang 2009) conducted a study utilizing the
CGE model. They claim that the effect is not uniform and that
underdeveloped nations will suffer disproportionately huge losses. Their
modeling showed that between now and 2080, Southeast Asia’s GDP will
fall by 1.4%. Crop production might decrease by up to 17.3 percent,
with paddy rice farming declining by up to 16.5 percent and wheat
farming decreasing by up to 36.3 percent. Increased reliance on imports
of these agricultural items by Southeast Asian nations in the future
would lead to greater welfare losses and a worsening of trade conditions
in the area (Mielniczuk et al., 2013).
Numerous studies have investigated this subject to shed light on the
potential consequences of a changing climate on wheat cultivation in the
different nations. The changes in temperature and precipitation patterns
are one of the main obstacles that climate change presents to Pakistan’s
wheat production (Bizikova et al., 2014). According to Pequeno et al
(2024) Rising temperatures can significantly affect the growth and
development of wheat, potentially leading to reduced yield and quality.
Additionally, changes in rainfall patterns and increased variability in
precipitation can disrupt the optimal water availability for wheat
crops, further affecting their productivity. Extreme weather events such
as droughts and heat waves, which are expected to increase in frequency
and intensity under climate change, can cause severe damage to wheat
crops in Pakistan. These events can result in reduced grain filling,
stunted growth, and increased susceptibility to pests and diseases,
ultimately leading to decreased yields. Furthermore, climate change can
influence the phenology of wheat, altering the timing of important
growth stages such as flowering and ripening. This can have implications
for the overall growth cycle and productivity of wheat crops in the
country. In response to the challenges posed by climate change,
agronomists and researchers in Pakistan have been exploring various
adaptation strategies. These include developing and promoting
heat-tolerant and drought-resistant wheat varieties, improving water
management techniques, implementing precision agriculture practices, and
adopting climate-smart agricultural practices (Pequeno et al., 2024)
It is clear that major efforts are required to reduce the possible
negative effects, even if research on the influence of climate change on
wheat production in Pakistan is still ongoing. Collaboration between
researchers, policymakers, and farmers is vital to developing and
implementing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. To mitigate
the adverse effects of global warming on wheat production in Pakistan,
researchers and agronomists are exploring various adaptation strategies.
These strategies include developing and promoting heat-tolerant and
drought-resistant wheat varieties, improving water management
techniques, adopting climate-smart agricultural practices, and
optimizing irrigation systems. It is important to note that the
information provided here is a general overview, and more in-depth
research and analysis of the specific impacts of climate change on wheat
production in Pakistan may be required.
This study recruited quantitative technique to conduct VAR modelling
using python programming language to comprehensively address the
research questionThe research employed a Vector Autoregression (VAR)
model, which is a quantitative statistical technique that captures the
dynamic interactions and interdependencies among various time-series
variables (Wu and Zhou, 2014). In particular, the VAR model enables the
simultaneous analysis of multiple variables, facilitating a thorough
investigation into the relationships among wheat production (Wheat),
carbon dioxide concentrations (CO2), average temperature (Temperature),
average precipitation (Precip), agricultural land used for wheat
cultivation (Area), and water accessibility (Water).