5.1. Conclusion
Pakistan’s ability to produce wheat is seriously threatened by climate
change. The repercussions of climate change are already being felt
throughout the nation, including more extreme weather events, altered
precipitation patterns, and rising temperatures. Future predictions
indicate that these effects will worsen and could result in major drops
in wheat output. The government of Pakistan has made some efforts to
address how climate change is affecting wheat production. These actions
include funding research and development of crop types that are climate
resilient, encouraging water-saving techniques, and assisting farmers in
implementing climate-smart agricultural techniques. To support farmers’
adaptation to climate change and safeguard wheat output, additional work
must be done.
In this study, the effect of climate change on wheat production in
Pakistan is assessed using the vector auto-regression (VAR) model. Data
from the previous 50 years was used in the study. According to the
conclusions drawn from the analysis of historical data, there hasn’t
been a significant negative impact of climate change on Pakistan’s wheat
production to date. The amount of land devoted to wheat farming and the
effects of climate change, for example, will have a significant impact
on the future production of wheat.
According to the study on variance decomposition, the area of wheat
cultivation and climatic change are responsible for 30% and 34% of the
variation in wheat production, respectively. As a result, in the context
of climate change, the availability of water and temperature play a
critical role in deciding the future of wheat production. These elements
have a direct impact on the development and growth of wheat harvests
because they affect irrigation techniques and the length of the growing
season, respectively, and water availability impacts both of these
parameters. Furthermore, alterations in precipitation patterns and harsh
weather might make the effects of climate change on wheat output even
worse.
Wheat is the primary staple grain cultivated in Pakistan. The nascent
peril of climate change has the potential to impact the magnitude of
wheat output in Pakistan. As a nation with a strong agricultural sector,
it is imperative that we enhance our capacity to meet local consumption
demands by expanding wheat output. The resulting excess may then be sold
to international markets, therefore generating foreign cash. To
effectively address the various developing hazards associated with
climate change, the agricultural sector in Pakistan must implement
appropriate adaptation techniques. These techniques may include the use
of drought-resistant wheat varieties, improved irrigation systems, and
better soil management practices. Additionally, funding R&D for
climate-smart agriculture can aid in the creation of creative solutions
to lessen the adverse effects of climate change on Pakistan’s wheat
production.