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\begin{document}

\title{Feedbacks, Pattern Effects, and Efficacies in a Large Ensemble of
HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL Historical Simulations}



\author[1]{Harry Mutton}%
\author[1]{Timothy Andrews}%
\author[2]{Leon Hermanson}%
\author[2]{Melissa Seabrook}%
\author[1]{Doug M Smith}%
\author[1]{Mark Adam Ringer}%
\author[3]{Mark J Webb}%
\affil[1]{Met Office}%
\affil[2]{Met Office Hadley Centre}%
\affil[3]{UK Met Office Hadley Centre}%


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  \date{May 17, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Climate feedbacks over the historical period (1850--2014) have been
investigated in large ensembles of historical, hist-ghg, hist-aer, and
hist-nat experiments, with 47 members for each experiment. Across the
historical ensemble with all forcings, a range in estimated Effective
Climate Sensitivity (EffCS) between approximately 3--6 K is found, a
considerable spread stemming solely from initial condition uncertainty.
The spread in EffCS is associated with varying Sea Surface Temperature
(SST) patterns seen across the ensemble due to their influence on
different feedback processes. For example, the level of polar
amplification is shown to strongly control the amount of sea ice melt
per degree of global warming. This mechanism is responsible for the
large spread in shortwave clear-sky feedbacks and is the main
contributor to the different forcing efficacies seen across the
different forcing agents, although in HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL these differences
in forcing efficacy are shown to be small. The spread in other feedbacks
is also investigated, with the level of tropical SST warming shown to
strongly control the longwave clear-sky feedbacks, and the local
surface-air-temperatures and large scale tropospheric temperatures shown
to influence cloud feedbacks. The metrics used to understand the spread
in feedbacks can also help to explain the disparity between feedbacks
seen in the historical experiment simulations and a more accurate
modeled estimate of the feedbacks seen in the real world derived from an
atmosphere-only experiment prescribed with observed SSTs (termed
amip-piForcing).%
\end{abstract}%



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