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\begin{document}

\title{Projection of Global Future Lightning Occurrence using only Large-Scale
Environmental Variables in CAM5}



\author[1]{Montana Etten-Bohm}%
\author[2]{Courtney Schumacher}%
\author[3]{Yangyang Xu}%
\author[2]{Aaron Funk}%
\affil[1]{University of North Dakota}%
\affil[2]{Texas A\&M University}%
\affil[3]{TAMU}%


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  \date{May 22, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
This study evaluates a lightning parameterization that utilizes only
large-scale environmental variables (i.e., convective available
potential energy (CAPE), column moisture, and lifting condensation level
(LCL)) for present-day (2017-19) and end-of-century (2098-2100) RCP8.5
climate scenarios in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5).
Using a single equation, the present-day prediction can produce a
reasonable land/ocean ratio in lightning occurrence. The end-of-century
prediction shows relative increases of about 50\% over higher-latitude
land, but much more variable increases and decreases across mid-latitude
ocean and the tropics such that the overall global lightning occurrence
is expected to slightly decrease. Lightning occurrence over land
predicted from present-day CAM5 is less than that using MERRA-2
reanalysis because of differences in the basic-state variables used as
predictors. In addition, the choice of dilute or undilute CAPE will
impact future lightning predictions over land, but the environment-only
parameterization results are more consistent than a CAPE x precipitation
parameterization.%
\end{abstract}%



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