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\abovecaptionskip =-2pt How Much Should We Trust Regression-Kink-Design Estimates?thanks: I am grateful to Matz Dahlberg for his comments and advice. I thank Jun Saito for sharing his municipal political economy data sets. I also would like to thank Jon Fiva, Masayoshi Hayashi, Reo Takaku and seminar participants at Uppsala, Stockholm, Taormina, and Gothenburg for their very helpful comments and suggestions. All mistakes are my own.
  • Michihito Ando
Michihito Ando

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Abstract

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=-2pt In a Regression Kink (RK) design with a finite sample, a confounding smooth nonlinear relationship between an assignment variable and an outcome variable around a threshold can be spuriously picked up as a kink and result in a biased estimate. In order to investigate how well RK designs handle such confounding nonlinearity, I firstly implement Monte Carlo simulations and then study the effect of fiscal equalization grants on local expenditure in Japan using an RK design. Results in both the Monte Carlo simulations and the empirical application suggest that RK estimation without covariates can be easily biased, and this problem can be mitigated by adding basic covariates to the regressors. On the other hand, a smaller bandwidth or a higher order polynomial, even a quadratic polynomial, tends to result in imprecise estimates although they may be able to reduce estimation bias. In sum, RK estimation with a confounding nonlinearity often suffers from bias or imprecision and estimates are credible only when relevant covariates are controlled for.

JEL classification: C13, C21, H71, H72, H77
Keywords: : Regression Kink Design, Endogenous regressors, Intergovernmental grants, Flypaper effect