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\begin{document}

\title{Tracking progress towards urban nature targets using landcover and
vegetation indices: A global study for the 96 C40 Cities}



\author[1]{Greta K Martin}%
\author[1]{Katelyn O'Dell}%
\author[2]{Patrick Kinney}%
\author[2]{Marcia Pescador-Jimenez}%
\author[3]{David Rojas-Rueda}%
\author[1]{Robert Canales}%
\author[4]{Susan Anenberg}%
\affil[1]{George Washington University}%
\affil[2]{Boston University}%
\affil[3]{Colorado School of Public Health}%
\affil[4]{george washington university}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 19, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Access to urban natural space, including blue and greenspace, is
associated with improved health. In 2021, the C40 Cities Climate
Leadership Group set 2030 Urban Nature Declaration (UND) targets:
``Quality Total Cover'' (30\% green area within each city) and
``Equitable Spatial Distribution'' (70\% of the population living close
to natural space). We evaluate progress towards these targets in the 96
C40 cities using globally available, high-resolution datasets for
landcover and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We use the
European Space Agency (ESA)'s WorldCover dataset to define greenspace
with discrete landcover categories and ESA's Sentinel-2A to calculate
NDVI, adding the `open water' landcover category to characterize total
natural space. We compare 2020 levels of urban green and natural space
to the two UND targets and predict the city-specific NDVI level
consistent with the UND targets using linear regressions. The 96-city
mean NDVI was 0.538 (range: 0.148, 0.739). Most (80\%) cities meet the
Quality Total Cover target, and nearly half (47\%) meet the Equitable
Spatial Distribution target. Landcover-measured greenspace and total
natural space were strong (mean R2 = 0.826) and moderate (mean R2=0.597)
predictors of NDVI and our NDVI-based natural space proximity measure,
respectively. The 96-city mean predicted NDVI value of meeting the UND
targets was 0.478 (range: 0.352-0.565) for Quality Total Cover and 0.660
(range: 0.498-0.767) for Equitable Spatial Distribution. Our translation
of the area- and access-based metrics common in urban natural space
targets into the NDVI metric used in epidemiology allows for quantifying
the health benefits of achieving such targets.%
\end{abstract}%



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\textbf{Hosted file}

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