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\begin{document}

\title{Influences of Space Weather Forecasting Uncertainty on Satellite
Conjunction Assessment}



\author[1]{William Parker}%
\author[2]{Mervyn P. Freeman}%
\author[2]{Gareth Chisham}%
\author[2]{Andrew John Kavanagh}%
\author[1]{Peng Mun Siew}%
\author[3]{Victor Rodriguez-Fernandez}%
\author[1]{Richard Linares}%
\affil[1]{Massachusetts Institute of Technology}%
\affil[2]{British Antarctic Survey}%
\affil[3]{Universidad Politecnica de Madrid}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 29, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
A significant increase in the number of anthropogenic objects in Earth
orbit has necessitated the development of satellite conjunction
assessment and collision avoidance capabilities for new spacecraft.
Often, the greatest source of uncertainty in predicting a satellite's
trajectory in low Earth orbit originates from atmospheric neutral mass
density variability caused by enhanced geomagnetic activity and solar
EUV absorption. This work investigates the impacts of solar and
geomagnetic index forecasting uncertainty on satellite drag and
satellite maneuver decision-making. During an averaged point in the
solar cycle, accurate index forecasts with reduced uncertainty are shown
to provide significantly improved advance notice for dangerous
conjunction events above 500 km. Below 500 km, forecast improvements are
less impactful. This boundary of utility from forecast improvements
shifts upward and downward during solar maximum and solar minimum,
respectively. Improved index forecasts are shown to have little impact
on making maneuver decisions 12-24 hours from a potential conjunction
event, but are demonstrated to be very useful when trying to make
maneuver decisions with more lead time. These improved forecasts of the
space weather indices help in making actionable, durable conjunction
predictions sooner than is currently possible.%
\end{abstract}%



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