Methods
In this study, I used the Mexican small-eared shrew, Cryptotis
mexicanus , to compare the model performance of the time-matched
approach against the standard 30-year approach (STA). The workflow
consisted of five steps: (i) collection of occurrence and background
data, (ii) generation of bioclimatic variables, (iii) comparison of
environmental values, (iv) training and selection of models, and (v)
comparison between models (Fig. 2). Cryptotis mexicanus is a
cloud forest specialist that inhabits the Sierra Madre Oriental and the
mountainous areas of Oaxaca State in Mexico. It is a good model species
for exploring predictions of environmental suitability using several
temporal resolutions for three reasons. First, its geographical
distribution seems largely constrained by moisture and temperature,
which allows for informative ENMs based on a few bioclimatic variables
(Guevara et al. 2018, Guevara 2020). Second, shrews are considered one
of the mammalian groups with the lowest individual dispersal
capabilities (Schloss et al. 2012, Urban et al. 2013), which enables me
to test the reliability of time-matched ENMs in a species with low
mobility. Third, it has a fairly short, estimated generation time of 330
days, given its body size (Pacifici et al. 2013), which allows me to
explore the existence of different time lag relationships between
population dynamics and the temporal resolutions of the environmental
data (one, five, and ten years prior to the records).