Figure 6. Difference between validation metrics for the standard 30-year average (STA) against each of the three temporal resolutions (T01, one-year; T05, five-year; T10, ten-year). Each panel shows the pairwise difference between validation metrics of 1000 iterations (4 folds × 250 repeats) based on repeated k -fold cross-validation. The histograms show the distribution of the pairwise differences of the area under the curve (AUC; shown in A), the Continuous Boyce Index (CBI; shown in B), the 10th percentile of training omission rate of the validation folds (OR; shown in C), and the withheld data (OR-W; shown in D) between the standard and each time-matched approach. The black dashed lines represent the expected mean values if the standard and time-matched matching approaches are the same. The red lines in the histograms indicate the mean value of the difference. Mean values above the dashed line indicate higher values for the standard 30-year average approach. Higher values in AUC and CBI represent a better performance of the standard approach. In contrast, for the omission rates (OR and OR-W), lower values represent a better performance of the standard approach. Asterisks in the top-right of each plot indicate significant differences obtained by the correlated t-tests.