ABSTRACT
Background : Starting from May 31st, 2023, the
local transmission of monkeypox (Mpox) in mainland China began in
Beijing. Till now, the transmission characteristics have not been
explored.
Method : Based on the daily Mpox incidence data in the first
three weeks of Beijing (from May 31st to June
21st, 2023) , we employed the instant-individual
heterogeneity transmission model to simultaneously calculate the
effective reproduction number (R e) and the degree
of heterogeneity (k ) of the Beijing epidemic. We additionally
simulated the monthly infection size in Beijing from July to September
and compared with the reported data to project subsequent transmission
dynamics.
Results : We estimated R e to be 1.68
[95% HPD:1.12, 2.41], and k to be 2.57 [95% HPD: 0.54,
83.88], suggesting the transmission of Mpox in Beijing was
supercritical and didn’t have considerable transmission heterogeneity.
We projected that R e fell in the range of 0.95 to
1.0 from July to September, highlighting more efforts needed to further
reduce the Mpox transmissibility.
Conclusion : Our findings revealed supercritical and homogeneous
transmission of the Mpox epidemic in Beijing. Our results may provide
reference for understanding and predicting of the on-going Mpox
transmission in other regions of China and assess the effect of control
measures.