Simulation study
To predict the variation in transmission dynamics from 2023-07-01 to
2023-09-30 in Beijing, we simulated the infection data during this
period and compared with the official reports [3]. For each
simulation, we assumed constant reproduction number and constant degree
of heterogeneity which represented the average dynamics during the
period. We started with the incidence curve between 05-31 and 06-21, and
simulated the daily confirmed cases with the individual-instant
heterogeneity model as in [6] and then aggregated to generate the
monthly reports. We set three levels of reproduction number as
0.8,0.85,0.95 and 1.0, and three level of dispersion number as 1.0, 2.0,
and 3.0. For each parameter setting, we simulated the spread of Mpox for
50000 times.