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\begin{document}

\title{Description and evaluation of the CNRM-Cerfacs Climate Prediction System
(C3PS)}



\author[1]{Emilia Sanchez-Gomez}%
\author[2]{Roland Séférian}%
\author[3]{Lauriane Batté}%
\author[4]{Christophe Cassou}%
\author[5]{Boris Dewitte}%
\author[6]{Marie-Pierre Moine}%
\author[7]{Rym Msadek}%
\author[8]{Chloe Prodhomme}%
\author[9]{Yeray Santana-Falcón}%
\author[1]{Laurent Terray}%
\author[10]{Aurore Voldoire}%
\affil[1]{CERFACS}%
\affil[2]{CNRM (Météo-France/CNRS)}%
\affil[3]{Météo-France}%
\affil[4]{CNRS-Cerfacs}%
\affil[5]{CEAZA}%
\affil[6]{CECI-CERFACS}%
\affil[7]{CNRS/CERFACS}%
\affil[8]{No Institution}%
\affil[9]{Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques}%
\affil[10]{CNRM / Météo-France}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 18, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
The CNRM-Cerfacs Climate Prediction System (C3PS) is a new research
modeling tool for performing climate reanalyses and
seasonal-to-multiannual predictions for a wide array of earth system
variables. C3PS is based on the CNRM-ESM2-1 model including interactive
aerosols and stratospheric chemistry schemes as well as terrestrial and
marine biogeochemistry enabling a comprehensive representation of the
global carbon cycle. C3PS operates through a seamless coupled
initialization for the atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and
biogeochemistry components that allows a continuum of predictions across
seasonal to interannual time-scales. C3PS has also contributed to the
Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP-A) as part of the sixth Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Here we describe the main
characteristics of this novel earth system-based prediction platform,
including the methodological steps for obtaining initial states to
produce forecasts. We evaluate the entire C3PS initialisation procedure
with the most up-to-date observations and reanalysis over 1960-2021, and
we discuss the overall performance of the system in the light of the
lessons learnt from previous and actual prediction platforms. Regarding
the forecast skill, C3PS exhibits comparable seasonal predictive skill
to other systems. At the decadal scale, C3PS shows significant
predictive skill in surface temperature during the first two years after
initialisation in several regions of the world. C3PS also exhibits
potential predictive skill in net primary production and carbon fluxes
several years in advance. This expands the possibility of applications
of forecasting systems, such as the possibility of performing
multi-annual predictions of marine ecosystems and carbon cycle.%
\end{abstract}%



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\textbf{Hosted file}

\verb`Esanchez-Gomez_et_al_C3PS_manuscrit_submitted.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/676550/articles/721257-description-and-evaluation-of-the-cnrm-cerfacs-climate-prediction-system-c3ps}

\textbf{Hosted file}

\verb`C3PS_supplementary_figure.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/676550/articles/721257-description-and-evaluation-of-the-cnrm-cerfacs-climate-prediction-system-c3ps}

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