Fig 2 . Boxplots show the AUC (area under the curve of a
receiver operating characteristic of extinction events) of models for
three European breeding birds using different dimensions of climate
change. The results are based on four machine-learning techniques and 50
replications.
The association between potential range loss and climate change metrics
reveals that different dimensions of climate change could be linked with
species losses across Europe. The importance of metrics varies among
species. For Milvus milvus (Red kite), for example, the average
temperature in spring (TempSpring), trend in precipitation (TrendPrec)
and Trend in temperature (TrendTemp) and extreme events (ExtremeEvents)
are the four most important variables linked with to climate suitability
loss (Fig3.a). For Merops apiaster (European bee-eater) the top
four most important variables are: Extreme events (ExtremeEvents); trend
in temperature (TrendTemp); Velocity of climate change (Velocity); and
temperature in spring (TempSpring) (Fig3.b). For Cettia cetti(Cettiās warbler), four variables rank on top: Changes in probability of
local extremes (ExtremeEvents); standardized local anomalies (sTLocA);
trend in precipitation (TrendPrec); and average precipitation in spring
(Prec.Spring) and (Fig3.c).
These findings emphasize that different bird species may respond
differently to climate change, and certain climate change metrics are
more relevant for predicting climate change susceptibility for each
species. Understanding species-climate associations is vital for
conservation efforts and for tailoring strategies to mitigate the impact
of climate change on different species.